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Hello, dear colleagues!
Yesterday's trading, the main pair of the Forex market held in the price range of 1.1710-1.1816, and ended the session on August 12 at the level of 1.1783. Thus, both the strong resistance near 1.1800 and the strong support around 1.1700 remained unbroken, and the assumption that the EUR/USD trades will be held under the influence of technical factors was generally justified.
Despite the negative data on industrial production in the Eurozone and higher than expected consumer price indices in the US, the market, as has often happened recently, simply ignored yesterday's macroeconomic statistics. Despite the data that were in favor of the US currency, the euro/dollar pair showed growth. The main concerns of market participants are related to the possible slower economic recovery of the world's leading economy compared to the European one. In addition, if earlier the US dollar was in demand as a safe asset during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the world, then you can forget about it, the situation has changed. Now the US currency is under pressure from the situation with the coronavirus in the US itself. As of yesterday, more than 200,000 new COVID-19 infections have been detected worldwide, with about one-third of this figure occurring in the United States. The position of the US currency is not strengthened by the constant scandalous comments and decisions of the 45th US President, Donald trump, who has already begun to play his election card with all his might. However, there will be more. A variety of surprises can be expected from this person, and not entirely pleasant ones.
If you look at today's economic calendar and look at events that may affect the price dynamics of the main currency pair, you should only highlight the initial applications for unemployment benefits, which will be published at 13:30 London time. In this regard, we can again expect that the euro/dollar will be traded today mainly taking into account the technical component.
Daily
As we can see, the euro bulls do not think to give up. Yesterday, the pair tried to break through the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, but failed to do so. Nevertheless, today at the moment of writing, the pair again storms the Tenkan line for a breakdown and is trading near 1.1813. The census of yesterday's highs and the absorption of stops, which are slightly higher, will strengthen the upward dynamics, and in this case, further reference points for the upward movement will be 1.1850, 1.1883, 1.1900 and, possibly, an important seller resistance at 1.1915, where the highs of trading on August 6 were marked. In case of a breakdown of the last mark, the bullish sentiment for EUR/USD will strengthen significantly, after which the pair will go to the levels of 1.1960, 1.2000 and 1.2020.
Bears will gain control of the market for the euro/dollar only if the support breaks at 1.1710 and a significant level of 1.1700 with mandatory consolidation below the latter. At the moment, the task of players to lower the rate is seen as more difficult and problematic for its implementation.
H1
On the hourly chart, we see that during today's Asian session, the pair has already tested yesterday's resistance of sellers at 1.1816, but bounced back from this level. Nevertheless, the euro bulls are persistent and determined to test this level again. If this happens, the 1.1816 mark will most likely be broken and the quote will go to higher prices, which were mentioned above.
Taking into account the technical picture on the considered timeframes, the main trading recommendation for today looks like purchases that can be opened at the breakout of 1.1816 or after the actual breakdown of this level on a pullback to it. Another option for opening long positions on EUR/USD will be a pullback to the already passed up 89 EMA, 200 EMA and 50 MA, in the price zone of 1.1780-1.1770.
If the upside traders are not destined to pass 1.1816 and the reversal signals of Japanese candlesticks appear here, you can shortly sell with the nearest targets in the area of 1.1780-1.1770. I believe that the moving averages broken upwards are able to provide the price with good support and turn the rate up.
Good luck with trading!
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