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The euro confidently began to grow at the very beginning of the US session, which came as a complete surprise in many ways. This was facilitated by the imposition of several factors at once. And the most significant was expectations on the results of today's European Central Bank meeting. Investors hope to hear ECB President Christine Lagarde voice plans to change monetary policy. Although the likelihood of such a development of events is not so great. Nevertheless, market participants are quite optimistic. We can also add the need for a local rebound to this list, since the euro has been considerably weakening in recent days. Although, this does not compensate for the previous growth, so there aren't many reasons for any technical rebound. The third factor was the notorious Brexit. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has introduced a draft law on the UK internal market, which, in fact, cancels the agreements reached between the UK and the European Union. And logically, this factor, like a couple of previous days, should have played against the euro. However, there is hope that the House of Commons will reject this law and the Brexit issue will return to the same positions it was in before the beginning of this week.
It is clear that nobody looks at macroeconomic data when the market is engaged in severe affective movements, either down or up. This is exactly what happened yesterday, when investors banally ignored the data on open vacancies in the United States. The number of open vacancies has increased from 6,001,000 to 6,618,000. In other words, US unemployment has much to go for it to fall. So from month to month, the content of the United States Department of Labor report will only get better. So, even in the medium term, the dollar positions look very, very good.
Job Openings (United States):
The ECB meeting is the main event for the day and the entire week. No one doubts that the parameters of monetary policy will remain unchanged. But everyone is not interested in this. The last two weeks have been accompanied by speeches from various ECB representatives, the general essence of which can be reduced to a simple idea - the policy of negative interest rates has exhausted itself at best. It was even suggested that the policy of negative interest rates has many more negative sides than positive ones. Moreover, this idea was substantiated by research and evidence. The simple conclusion is that the ECB is gradually preparing the public for a change in its monetary policy. The hope that today Lagarde can make such statements provides support to the euro. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that Lagarde is not in a hurry to make such loud statements. After all, deflation has actually begun in Europe. So, market participants may face serious disappointment, after which the euro will fall again.
Refinancing rate (Europe):
The market will ignore US data just like yesterday. The data on applications for unemployment benefits will be published simultaneously with Lagarde's speech. Nevertheless, the number of initial applications should decrease from 881,000 to 846,000. The number of repeated applications may decrease from 13,254,000 to 12,925,000. So the US labor market continues to recover, which will inevitably lead to strengthening the dollar. Even if it isn't right now.
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (United States):
The euro/dollar pair, moving along a downward trajectory from the psychological level of 1.2000, found a foothold around 1.1750, where the price rebounded in the opposite direction on a natural basis. The center point in this case reflects the price slowdown in the period of August 21-27.
If we proceed from the quote's current location, we can see that the pullback has returned the quote to the 1.1800 level.
Regarding the market dynamics, one can see a consistent acceleration of volatility, where speculative hype is clearly visible at minute intervals.
Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily period), it is worth paying attention to the medium-term upward move, where the correction from the psychological level of 1.2000 does not violate the trend's structure in any way.
We can assume that the quote will temporarily be pulled into roughly moving along the 1.1800 level, where the key values will be the coordinates 1.1750 and 1.1865.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hourly intervals signal a buy due to the pullback stage. The daily period, as before, signals a sell, due to the corrective movement from the 1.2000 level.
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