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The EUR / USD instrument's wave marking looks quite convincing in global terms. The departure of quotes from the reached highs confirms the assumption that the construction of wave 3 or C is complete. Wave 4 (assumed) takes on a three-wave form, at least it now clearly presents waves 1 and 2 or a and b. Thus, a new decline in quotes may begin in the near future. At the same time, the US currency really needs the support of the news background. We see how reluctant the markets are to invest in the dollar. Therefore, wave 4 may turn out to be non-stretched, and the entire section of the trend, which originates in March, may take a 5-wave form.
The estimated wave 5 in 5 in 3 or C completed its construction, based on what the wave count of a smaller scale shows. If this is true, then the decline in quotes will continue with targets located near the 23.6% Fibonacci level within the descending wave C in 4 or, possibly, even a new descending set of waves. At the moment, we see that the first and second waves of the new global wave have been completed, so a new decline in the instrument's quotes is expected.
There was not much news and reports last Friday, September 11. Meanwhile, in America, a report on the consumer price index for July was released, which, of course, could please buyers of the US currency. But the markets at the end of the working week had no desire to actively trade and just brought it to the end in a calm tone. Nonetheless, US inflation has started to accelerate, raising hopes for a faster economic recovery. However, after the strongest fall of 32% in the second quarter, the economy will still recover for a long time, which is probably longer and heavier than the European one. This means that the markets now favor the Euro currency. I note that the US dollar has been rising very reluctantly for the past 5-6 weeks.This alludes that markets do not generate additional demand for the US dollar. As a result,
This week, an important event - the Fed meeting - will take place. Most likely, the key rate and the volume of the asset purchase program from the market will remain unchanged. Thus, most attention will be paid to the speech of FRS Chairman Jerome Powell. He can again talk about inflation, about changing the approach to the correlation of inflationary processes and monetary policy. However, it is impossible to predict now what Powell will say. Last week, Christine Lagarde did not seem to report anything optimistic for the Euro, but it rose by 100 points. So there should be a reaction to the FOMC meeting and Powell's speech, but what are they?
General conclusions and recommendations:
The Euro-Dollar pair presumably completed the construction of the global wave 3 or C and the second corrective wave as part of the trend section that begins on September 1. Thus, at this time, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.1706 and 1.1520, which corresponds to 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci level, for each MACD signal down. I expect to build a descending wave from 4. The Potential of this wave is 150 points.
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