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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair consolidated over the downward trend corridor and rose to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2789). The pair's rebound from this level worked in favor of the US currency and began to fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2625). Meanwhile, in the UK, all attention is once again focused on the coronavirus epidemic and its second wave. According to Johns Hopkins University, 6,200 people fell ill in Britain on September 23, and 6,600 people fell ill on September 24. The maximum incidence in the spring was 5,500 people per day. Thus, even now, at the beginning of the second wave, we can make a forecast that it will be much stronger and more destructive than the first. For a Briton, this is certainly bad news since quarantine measures have already been tightened in the UK, however, the number of cases is growing every day, which may force the British authorities to tighten the quarantine even more. Further, any tightening is a blow to the business and economic activity of the population. A blow to the service sector, which is mostly crowded places (shopping centers, bars, restaurants, stadiums, fitness clubs). Thus, in the event of further deterioration of the epidemiological situation, it is the service sector that will be the first to fall under restrictions, which will undoubtedly affect the country's final GDP.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2720). However, the bullish divergence of the MACD indicator allowed the pair to make a reversal in favor of the British dollar and make a minimal growth in the direction of the upper border of the downward trend corridor. Closing the pair's rate above this border will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.2867). Fixing quotes under the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow us to expect a resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2543).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2776). Now traders can expect a further drop in quotes in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2516).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed under the lower downward trend line, thus, a false breakout of this line followed earlier. The pair returns to a downward trend.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave a speech in the UK. Meanwhile, in America, Mnuchin and Powell made regular speeches to the US Congress. No important messages were received from these events.
News calendar for the US and UK:
US - change in the volume of orders for durable goods (12:30 GMT).
On September 25, there was no news or reports in the UK, and a report on orders for durable goods is expected to be published in America.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the British pound, released last Friday, turned out to be much more logical than the previous one. This time, the report showed that the "Non-commercial" group reduced the number of long contracts on its hands by 4,547 units and opened 7,013 short contracts. Thus, the mood of the most important group (the group of professional speculators) became more "bearish" during the reporting week. Given that the British pound has fallen by 700 points since September 1, this behavior of the "Non-commercial" group is logical. The "Commercial" group (hedgers) managed to close about 80,000 contracts during the reporting week, in equal shares of short and long. For comparison, 80,000 contracts are more than the total number of contracts currently in the hands of speculators. Thus, the attractiveness of the British in the eyes of major traders begins to decline quite strongly.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the British currency with a target of 1.2625 since the rebound was made from the level of 161.8% (1.2789) on the hourly chart. I do not recommend opening purchases of the British currency until the quotes are fixed above the downward trend corridor on the 4-hour chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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