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Last week turned out to be quite volatile amid various events and published economic data, but the upcoming one may lead to a reversal and contribute to the growth of positive sentiment among investors.
What could be the reason for such sentiments?
We believe that the statement made last week by the speaker of the Lower House of Congress, N. Pelosi, that the democratic wing in Congress is developing its program to help Americans and businesses, which will be reported this week, will suspend sales in the stock markets and the strengthening of the dollar. And if these measures are really taken, we can expect a surge in demand for risky assets, not only in the United States, but also around the world, which will be a strong argument for a downward reversal of the dollar in the currency market.
On the other hand, this week will also focus heavily on statistics from Asia, Europe and the US. Let's highlight the most important ones that can have a strong impact on the dynamics of the currency markets. First of all, we have the publication on the number of new jobs in the non-economic sector of the United States. If they turn out to be worse than the expected 850,000, the dollar may likely decline, but then resume its growth in the wake of falling demand for risky assets. Investors will also closely monitor the vote on the Democratic congressional aid measures that Pelosi spoke about.
The next revised GDP values for the 2nd quarter for the UK and the US will be released. Data on business activity indices (PMI) in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of China, the Euro zone and Germany, as well as employment in Germany and the Euro zone will be presented. In addition, the markets will monitor the coming figures – the index of business activity, the index of pending sales in the real estate market and data from the basic index of personal consumption expenditures, expenditures and incomes of individuals in America.
We are also expecting speeches from ECB President Lagarde, Fed members Mester, Clarida, Bowman, Kaplan, Quarles, Harker and Williams, as well as the head of the Bundesbank Mauderer. Among the important events, we will also highlight the EU summit, and from the economic statistics, the publication of consumer inflation values in Germany and the Euro zone.
In general, this week will be extremely tense and even decisive to some extent, which is capable of either turning the markets upward or leading to renewed negative sentiments.
Forecast of the day:
The AUD/USD pair is trading at the level of 0.7030 and may continue to decline to 0.6985, if investor's sentiment in the market worsens. The trade war between the US and China is also negative for this pair.
The USD/JPY is consolidating above the level of 105.25. A price decline below will not lead it to fall to the level of 105.00.
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