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Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair completed a round of the upward correction on Thursday, October 8, having failed to overcome the previous local high of 1.1782. Thus, novice traders could open short positions while aiming for 1.1731 and 1.1700, placing the Stop Loss level above 1.1782. Another thing is that the pair went down 40 points for the entire trading day. Volatility is decreasing more and more every day and it is no more than 60 points at the moment. Thus, according to today's results, even the first target was not reached (before it, the quotes were literally two points short). Novice traders may have closed trades near this level, seeing that the price is very reluctant to fall during the day. Those who did not have time can still do it now in manual mode or set Stop Loss to breakeven, so as not to lose anything in any case. In general, the current trend remains minimally downtrend, since the price still settled below the upward trend line. Unfortunately, the current general mood of the market is such that it does not imply strong movements.
There is also nothing to take note of today in terms of macroeconomic news. Not a single important report or speech. Only news of a political nature from the United States, which, as we all see, does not have any momentary impact on the pair. That is, in the long term, all this data is likely to affect the pair's movement, but it doesn't right now. All this week's economic news was of little importance. The speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide any fundamentally new information to traders. As for the prospects for the euro and the US dollar, they remain absolutely incomprehensible and will remain so, at least until the presidential elections in the United States. After that, perhaps the tension will subside with traders, and they begin to feel more free and uninhibited.
Not a single report or other important event scheduled for the European Union or the United States on Friday, October 9. Therefore, only important and unforeseen news can influence the pair's movement. If this will not happen tomorrow, then we still recommend novice traders to rely on technical analysis when making trading decisions.
Possible scenarios for October 9:
1) Buy positions on the EUR/USD pair are currently not relevant since the price settled below the upward trend line, and since the price did not go beyond the 1.1782 level. Now, in order to consider them again, you need to wait for a new upward trend or some strong buy signals, such as a rebound from the 1.1696 level. Novice traders are advised to consider new long positions only in this case.
2) Selling, after the trend changed to a downward trend, became relevant, however, the pair is very reluctant to move down. The MACD indicator has not yet turned up, which would indicate a new round of upward correction and since it is still nighttime, novice traders are recommended either to move the Stop Loss order on short positions to breakeven, or to close orders and wait for a new round of upward correction and a new downward reversal MACD indicator. Intermediate targets for the downside movement may change, but overall we expect the quote to fall towards 1.1696.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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