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The EUR/USD pair managed to hold the previously set upward movement yesterday. As a result, the quote reached the forecasted area of 1.1870/1.1900, where there was a slowdown followed by a pullback.
The previously known price area of 1.1870/1.1900, which reflects the time period of September 10-18, played the role in the interaction of trading forces in the market. During this period, there is a systematic decline in trading volumes, which leads to a stop and a pullback.
In this case, the natural basis worked and we saw a pullback.
At the same time, the sell positions were supported by the so-called overbought background of the European currency, where there was an increased desire on the sellers' part to close the buy position due to the rapid growth in the period of October 19-21.
Regarding the current location of the quote, you can see that market participants continue to be in the pullback stage from the local high of 1.1880, where they have already managed to decline by more than 40 points.
Based on the quote's location, we can consider trading forecasts from several possible market scenarios.
First scenario: Completing the pullback followed by updating the local high
The previously passed local high (1.1830) on September 9, where a slowdown and a reversal occurs, is used as a pivot point in the current pullback. If the current local high of 1.1880 will be updated, it is very possible that it will lead us to 1.1910.
Second scenario: The pullback being replaced by stagnation
The market continues to be in the pullback stage, where fluctuation boundaries gradually appear and everything comes down to a sideways movement, which market participants regarded as a cumulative process.
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