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In theory, the main event of the day was supposed to be the Federal Reserve meeting, but everything is going a little differently. Nobody cares about the Fed and its monetary policy. Obviously, until this whole ballot count is over. No jerky movements. And the electoral process in the United States is not only delayed, but is also turning into a scandal. Accusations of electoral fraud and vote counting have begun. Donald Trump has already appealed to the courts of several states with a demand to suspend counting ballots and start doing it all over again. And apparently, this is going to be the basis of the news background today and tomorrow. It is absolutely impossible to say in advance how this will end, especially since nothing like this has ever happened in the history of the United States. In connection with the coronavirus pandemic, nearly 100 million Americans have voted by mail. And ahead of schedule. Many states have not even started counting these very votes yet. So you shouldn't even try to draw some conclusions right now. However, it is worth paying attention to the fact the dollar clearly strengthened yesterday due to belief that Donald Trump theoretically gained enough votes to extend his presidency. But the greenback immediately began to lose its position as soon as Joe Biden seized the leadership. This is a direct reflection of the fact that investors are cautious about the victory of the Democratic candidate. The fact is that investors do not really know what to expect from Biden in terms of economics. And yes, the fact that the vote count is becoming more and more scandalous and controversial does not add confidence either. After all, this casts doubt on the position of the United States as a kind of safe haven and last refuge for big business. Indeed, in the course of any major economic crisis, we have repeatedly observed a confident strengthening of the dollar, as investors fled from risk to the United States. What is happening there casts doubt on America's position. However, for now, the market will be thrown from side to side as one or another information regarding the presidential elections becomes available.
The euro/dollar pair, after jumping several hundred points, is concentrated within the values of 1.1700/1.1745, which is where it all began. In fact, market participants are in a stage of uncertainty, which leads to a cluster of speculators working on information noise.
If we proceed from the clock component and the quote's current location, then a conditional ceiling can be distinguished from the 1.1745/1.1767 area.
High activity is recorded with regard to market dynamics, which exceeds the average volatility indicator.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see the price rebound from the local low on September 25, where the quote, as before, is within the medium-term horizontal trend.
We can assume that the information background will continue to exert pressure on speculators, which will be expressed in variable leaps, depending on the incoming information. The values of 1.1700/1.1765 can become time limits, relative to which a surge in activity can be expected, working on a breakout.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hourly intervals follow the speculators, signaling a buy. The daily period continues to work on a downward tick, signaling a sell.
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