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At the end of November, the main oil grades added 25-27% each due to the growth of global risk appetite and investors' belief that with the help of vaccines, people will be able to defeat COVID-19, and the global economy will be able to restore the positions lost due to the recession and pandemic. The result of the last month of autumn was the best since May, and even the split in the ranks of OPEC+ could not stop the bulls' attacks on Brent and WTI for a long time. The fall in prices is actively bought out, as the market sincerely expects the extension of the agreement to reduce production by 7.7 million b/d. Otherwise, the organization risks losing face, and prices may fall.
WTI Monthly Dynamics:
If everyone has equal rights, then why should I fulfill my obligations and others should not? The United Arab Emirates has split the ranks of OPEC+, which at the beginning of the year was strongly criticized for the volume of production exceeding its allotted quotas, and then cut more barrels than necessary. Now the UAE would like to see the same from Nigeria, Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan. These countries are now on the blacklist of non-fulfilling collective obligations. For example, Russia, for the 5 months which ended in September, produced 430,000 b/d more than agreed, and Moscow does not see a special need to maintain the same volume of reductions of 7.7 million b/d. Vaccinations are on the way, the global economy is recovering, why do this? To support American manufacturers?
The latter are indeed gradually coming out of their coma and are looking at OPEC+ with hope. Texas oil at $45 per barrel is like leaving the intensive care unit: the chances of leaving this world have decreased, but recovery is still far away. The volume of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes has been growing for four consecutive months, but the indicator is still far from pre-crisis levels. Its total value is 60% lower than a year ago.
Rig dynamics in the USA:
American black gold producers are indeed very dependent on the OPEC+ decision. According to Wood Mackenzie, if the cartel, Russia, and other participating countries decide to reduce the volume of production cuts to 5.7 million b/d, as originally planned, the market will face an oversupply of 2 million b/d in January-March, and Brent will collapse to $40 per barrel.
Thus, OPEC +, which postponed the meeting from December 1 to December 3, faces an extremely difficult choice. Not only is it necessary to reconcile dissatisfied and defaulting obligations, but also not to overdo it, because an overly aggressive decision will increase prices and support competitors - manufacturers from the United States. Perhaps the best solution would be to maintain the previous volume of reductions of 7.7 million b/d, but for a shorter period than the market currently suggests.
Technically, after reaching the 113% target for the Shark pattern on the daily Brent chart, there are prerequisites for a rollback as part of the transformation of the previous pattern to 5-0. At the same time, rebounds from supports at $47, $ 46-46.2, and $ 44.05-44.2 per barrel should be used to form long positions.
Brent daily chart:
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