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The North American dollar currency pair is in a downward trend. The Canadian dollar shows a noticeable strengthening against its namesake from the United States. This dynamic is due to the optimism that prevails in the market. Investors are waiting for the imminent start of large-scale vaccination of the population against the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the adoption of a new package of fiscal incentives in the United States to counter the coronavirus pandemic.
I would like to note that today will be very important for the USD/CAD currency pair since, in addition to the US labor reports, which will be released at 14:30 (London time), data on the Canadian labor market will also be presented at the same time. In this regard, we should expect increased volatility and sharp multidirectional movements from USD/CAD. In principle, everything will depend on specific indicators.
Daily
On the daily chart, the pair moves in a descending channel with parameters: 1.4667-1.3388 (resistance line) and 1.3314 (support line). In this case, the trend will change only if the resistance line of the descending channel is broken, which is also a downward trend line. However, this line is far enough away from current prices, and for it to break through, market sentiment must radically change in favor of the US currency. However, at the moment, such changes are not visible, which means that with a high probability the pair will continue to move in a southerly direction. However, as noted above, do not write off labor statistics from the United States and Canada.
For today, the main target at the top will be 1.2965, where the red line of the Tenkan indicator Ichimoku passes. If the pair maintains the downward trend, it risks falling to the area of 1.2740, where the middle line (dotted) of the descending channel passes.
H4
On this timeframe, we can see that the pair has broken through the support level of 1.2925 and is already fixed under this broken mark. Given that the 50 simple and 89 exponential moving averages are slightly higher, we will define the zone for potential sales as 1.2925-1.2975. If we consider opening sales at more attractive prices, then of course short positions should be considered when the pair tries to return above the most important psychological and technical level of 1.3000. Given that the orange 200 exponentials are located slightly higher, the area for sales can be considered 1.3000-1.3070. However, for such a significant growth of the pair, labor data from the United States should be very good, and labor reports from Canada should disappoint market participants. In any case, the main trading recommendation for USD/CAD is sales that should be considered starting from 1.2900 and higher, from the prices that were already indicated earlier in this review. Purchases look riskier since they are against the current downward trend, and trading against the trend is always uncomfortable and such positioning carries increased risks. In this regard, I recommend refraining from purchases in the current situation. At least until there are clear signals to open long positions on USD/CAD.
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