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The US macroeconomic statistics has proven to be much better than forecasts, which led to the further weakening of the European currency. In particular, retail sales data were pleasing, whose growth rate increased from 2.5% to 7.4%. The previous data was revised for the worse – from 2.9%, however, this is no longer important due to the scale of growth. In addition, the decline rate in industrial production slowed down from -3.2% to -1.8%, against the forecasted growth of -2.7%. This is positive, since industrial production was assumed to decline by -3.6%. Overall, the US statistics did not disappoint, and as a result, the Euro could show a much stronger decline.
Retail Sales (United States):
It seems that the position of the US dollar will continue to strengthen today. However, the scale of growth will be fairly minor. The reason for such growth will be the application data for unemployment benefits. There is almost no doubt that the situation in the labor market is still steadily improving. Here, the number of initial applications may decline from 793 thousand to 765 thousand, while repeated applications is likely to fall from 4,545 thousand to 4,290 thousand. In this case, the European currency would continue its downward trend before anything unforeseen occurs.
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (United States):
The EUR/USD pair successfully broke through a number of variable values during a sharp decline, eventually reducing the euro rate up to 1.2023 level. The recovery process relative to the movement 1.1950 ---> 1.2169 has signals of a possible prolongation of the correction course from the high of the trend.
In turn, the dynamics in the market that started on Tuesday indicates the acceleration process. Traders' speculative behavior in the market confirm this.
Based on the quote's current location, a consolidation movement within the limits of 1.2033/1.2050 can be observed, which is almost the same to the accumulative process, before a potential growth in the market.
Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is noteworthy that there has been a corrective move from the high (1.2349) of the medium-term trend since January began, where coordinates 1.1950 serve as a variable support.
We can assume that the consolidation move in the range of 1.2033/1.2050 will only be temporary, where the method of breaking through a particular border, moving on a local impulse, is considered to be the most ideal trading tactic.
In any case, there are two trading recommendations:
- Long positions will be considered if the price holds above the level of 1.2060, with the target of 1.2100.
- Short positions will be considered if the price holds below the level of 1.2020, with the target of 1.1990-1.1950.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments have a sell signal again, due to a possible prolongation of the main correction course.
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