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Gold (XAU/USD) is trading higher above the 21 SMA and above the downtrend channel that was formed on May 5.
The rise in gold is due to a generalized correction in low-risk markets. The US dollar is falling across the board. The USDX is making the third consecutive daily decline and the worst day in weeks which favors the recovery of the euro, pound and gold.
Since the low of 1,786, gold has bounced by almost $50. This is a positive sign for a recovery in the short term. In the American session, XAU/USD reached 1,835.91, the highest level since last Thursday.
The weekly pivot point is located at 1,931. If gold manages to consolidate above this level, we could expect further advances in the gold price. Conversely, below this level, a technical correction is likely in the next few hours. So, the price could drop to the 21 SMA around 1,822.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (1,786-1,835) is located between 1,813 and 1,805. If gold manages to break below the 21 SMA, it is likely to continue its decline to 5/8 Murray or towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
Gold has left a candlestick formation called pinbar when it hit the low of 1,786. This is a positive sign in the short to medium term. It is likely that if gold manages to consolidate above 1,812 (5/8) or above 1,822 (21 SMA), it could rise and reach 6/8 Murray around 1,875 and even 200 EMA around 1,888 in the next few days.
Our outlook is bullish for gold. Hence, we expect a technical correction around the 21 SMA to buy, with targets towards the 200 EMA (the daily chart) around 1,850 and 6/8 Murray at 1,875.
Our trading plan is to buy around 1,822 or in the event of a technical bounce around 1,812, with targets at 1,835, 1850, 1,875, and 1,1888.
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