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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3728), a reversal in favor of the British dollar and an increase to the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.3859). Growth on Friday was very strong, and the British dollar strengthened well. It strengthened when there were no economic reports or other news. But there was other news that could once again leave a serious mark on the UK. In the last week, all the media of the world regularly reviewed the events in Ireland and Northern Ireland, where mass protests and rallies against Brexit, against the non-working Northern Ireland protocol, and on some national issues that were acute in this region for 30 years in the last century began again. On the island of Ireland, they are again dissatisfied with many of London's decisions and demand a revision of some points of the Brexit agreement.
At the same time, everyone once again remembered about Scotland, which very much wants to leave the United Kingdom. Let me remind you that in the 2016 referendum, the majority of Scots voted against leaving the EU. And now the government of the country, led by Nicola Sturgeon, intends to initiate a new referendum on independence from the UK to return to the European Union. Potentially, this is news that should put pressure on the Briton. However, as you can see on the chart on Friday, the British dollar, on the contrary, showed strong growth, as well as a few days before. On the older charts, there are also no signs that the pair is ready to show a strong fall, although two important upward trend lines have been overcome.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated under the ascending trend line, but at the same time performed a reversal in favor of the British currency and resumed the increase in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator also worked in favor of the resumption of the pair's increase. Closing the rate above the level of 23.6% will allow traders to expect further increase in the direction of the next level of 1.4003.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made another attempt to close under the ascending trend line, and this time it looks like a successful one. Thus, the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Friday in the UK, the economic news calendar was again empty, and the report from the US did not have any impact on the pair's movement.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On Monday, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States are empty, so the impact of the information background today will be absent.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report of April 13 on the Briton was very eloquent. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened as many as 7,227 new long contracts, which is a lot for the pound. Speculators also opened 930 short contracts. Thus, the mood of the most important category of traders has sharply become more bullish. Now the number of long contracts in the "Non-commercial" category again exceeds twice the number of short contracts. This means that in general, the bullish mood among speculators remains, and the pound may continue to grow. That's exactly what it has been doing in the last few days.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I do not recommend buying the British now, as it is very difficult to find specific reasons for its growth. The information background suggests that the British pound should fall rather than rising. I also do not recommend selling the pound sterling now, everything looks too ambiguous at anything on any chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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