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After banally ignoring the rather strange data on the labor market, the pound just stood still for some time. However, on Friday and Monday, the pound rose so strongly that whether this growth is justified or not, some semblance of a rebound was obvious. This is evident in the reaction to the unemployment data, which, although it raises questions, from a formal point of view, looks quite positive. But the pound simply has nowhere to grow, so it is not surprising that in the subsequent period, it gradually declined. However, this is clearly not enough. Over the previous two trading days, the cumulative growth was so significant that it is necessary to decline a little more.
However, it seems that this will have to wait a bit, as the pound received support in the form of inflation data. The growth rate of consumer prices in the United Kingdom was expected to increase from 0.4% to 0.8%. It turned out that inflation rose only to 0.7%. Even about a year ago, such a scenario would have been considered rather negative, since inflation is growing quite slowly. But now, there are growing concerns about the unwinding of the inflationary spiral and the like. In general, a slightly less rapid increase in inflation is perceived more as a positive factor. Nevertheless, although the pound shows an upward trend, it is still extremely limited. Thus, closer to the opening of the US session, it is possible to resume the gradual weakening of the pound.
Inflation (UK):
During the last trading day, the GBPUSD currency pair came close to the psychological level of 1.4000, where, on a natural basis, there was a reduction in the volume of long positions and, as a result, the price rolled back by about 80 points.
The market dynamics have an average level, despite the fact that the coefficient of speculative operations tends to grow.
If we proceed from the current location of the quote, we can see the price holding below the area of the psychological level of 1.4000 (1,3950/1,4000/1,4050), which in the long run may lead to a subsequent downward move.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, the risk of changing trading interests is visible, but this signal will be damaged only if the price holds higher than 1.4050 on the daily period.
In this situation, we can assume that if there is no return of the price higher than 1.3950, market participants will still continue to work on the correction scheme, where a hold lower than 1.3915 will lead to a downward movement in the direction of 1.3850.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that technical instruments have a variable Buy/Sell signal on the minute period, while the hourly period is running at the stage of a pullback from the psychological level of 1.4000, signaling a sale.
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