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At this time, the corrective scenario remains the main one for Bitcoin. In principle, our assumption continued to be confirmed yesterday. It is true that a reversal in any direction can occur in the market at any time and from any price position. Furthermore, no one knows when huge investors such as Tesla and MicroStrategy, as well as Elon Musk, will announce news that could hype up bitcoin. But if you look exclusively at the technical picture, the "digital gold" still bounced off the level of 61.8% - $58,000. This level was called "the last frontier" and, as you can see, it has survived. Now, bitcoin quotes will again tend first to the Senkou Span B line ($52,300), then to the previous low of about $47,000 per coin. We believe that even if the current movement is a correction, although it is possible that the upward trend is already completed, there should be at least one more round of the downward trend. It is logical to assume that the minimum of this round should be below the minimum of the previous round of correction. Thus, we are waiting for a further drop in quotes.
The fundamental background for bitcoin has been rather weak lately. The entire crypto community has now turned its attention to Ethereum, which continues to break records of value and is already called a "true digital currency", which is really intended for payments and settlements. This is because of the following reasons: Bitcoin is currently so expensive that it scares off many potential investors. Also, everyone understands that an asset cannot grow indefinitely. Sooner or later, there will be either a serious correction or a downward trend. Therefore, the higher you buy Bitcoin, the less profit you get. In addition, the upward trend has frankly weakened in recent months, as we have repeatedly discussed. And lastly, the fundamental background has not been the most favorable in recent weeks.
Many experts believe that the so-called "altcoin season" has now begun. Simply put, the bitcoin dominance index continues to fall, because investors have begun to shift their funds from the first cryptocurrency, which is already growing with great difficulty, to altcoins like Ethereum or Binance Coin, which are much cheaper and continue to grow. Experts believe that this flow of capital is explained very simply. The higher bitcoin gets, the fewer new investors want to deal with it, and the potentially bigger its fall will be. But Ethereum or Binance Coin look much less dangerous in this regard. Experts also note that retail investors are probably leaving Bitcoin at this time, while institutions stay calm amid a small drop in the price and continue to keep coins on their balance sheet. Thus, most experts agree that large investors will continue to hold bitcoin in their portfolios.
In technical terms, bitcoin bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci level. So, the further growth of "digital gold" will not happen for the time being, given the lack of a supporting fundamental background and the technical exit of quotes beyond the ascending channel. The chances of a corrective fall remain high, and the movement of the last few days was not like the market growth of bitcoin, but a desperate attempt by the bulls to maintain the upward trend.
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