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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair continued the growth process during the last trading day and rose to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2166). The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will work in favor of the US dollar, and some fall in the direction of the levels of 1.2117 and 1.2068. Closing the quotes above the level of 161.8% will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.2275). On Friday, the information background was reduced to two important reports from the United States – Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. I can't say that much depended on this data, but recently many people have noted the high rate of recovery of the American economy. Before the last Fed meeting, there were even rumors about Jerome Powell's possible hints at curtailing the US quantitative stimulus program. The latest GDP report turned out to be very powerful. However, as the practice has shown, not everything is as great as it could be. After three months in a row, the number of Nonfarm increased. This time, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector was 266 thousand, although forecasts predicted an increase of almost 1 million jobs. Even more depressing, the unemployment rate has risen to 6.1%, even though it has been steadily declining before. Thus, the US dollar received a powerful blow from the economic data and fell by 200 points on Thursday and Friday of last week. Jerome Powell was probably right when he repeatedly said that the US economy still needs to be stimulated and is recovering quickly but unevenly. At least for the near future, we can close all questions about whether there will be any tightening of monetary policy in 2021.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes continue to grow in the direction of the level of 1.2223. The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will work in favor of the US currency, and some fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027). The consolidation of quotes above 1.2223 will increase the probability of continuing growth in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2353). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes closed above the level of 161.8% (1.2027). Upward trends are now resumed on all charts. On the daily chart, the target is the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2356).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On May 7, all the most important reports were released in America. The unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls were the reports that led to a serious movement in the market.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On May 10, the calendars of the European Union and the United States are empty, so today, the information background will be absent for the euro/dollar pair.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which again showed that speculators actively increased both long contracts and short in the reporting week. The first number increased by 7,033 contracts, and the second – by 6,148. Thus, almost complete equality. In general, the number of long contracts focused on the hands of the "Non-commercial" category still exceeds the number of short contracts by almost two times. That is, the mood of speculators remains "bullish," which is confirmed by the movement of the euro/dollar pair itself, which has resumed upward trends on all charts. For other categories, the changes are minimal.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair today if there is a rebound from the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2166) on the hourly chart. I recommend buying the pair today if the hourly chart closes above the level of 1.2166 with a target of 1.2223.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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