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Monday's trading in the European and American stock markets ended in the negative zone. The shares of tech companies remained under noticeable pressure in the US, which stimulated the decline of other indices. In this case, the US dollar continued to remain under pressure against the basket of major currencies.
The main reason for the still remaining negative sentiment in the markets is the fear that inflation, which has sharply increased in the United States to a maximum of thirteen years, may not immediately decline, which may force the Fed to start changing its monetary policy, first by reducing the volume of government bond purchases, and then by raising interest rates. In this situation, the still rather weak economic recovery will face even more problems, which will lead not to economic growth in the future, but to a new wave of negative consequences.
Therefore, investors are highly cautious, fearing the possible scenario presented above. But despite the existing objective negative consequences, we believe that the markets have the possibility of a local recovery after the recent decline, which will lead to an increase in demand for company shares and commodity assets. If so, the US dollar will remain under pressure. The main factor supporting it, namely the growth in the yield of treasuries, has stopped. Thus, the yield of the benchmark 10-year T-Note continues to consolidate in a narrow range just above the 1.6% mark. Such dynamics of government securities seem to show that the market still believes the Fed's forecasts that the growth of inflation will be local.
If such sentiments persist, it is likely that the limited decline in stock indexes in America, and then in Europe, as well as the other regions of the world, will stop, and we will see a recovery in demand for company shares. The publication of economic statistics will play an important role here.
In terms of the prospects for the dollar rate, we believe that it will continue to smoothly decline against the basket of major currencies amid investors' positive mood.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair remains in a short-term upward trend, with the demand for risky assets supporting it. We believe that it will further rise to the level of 1.2245.
The USD/JPY pair is declining towards the support line of the short-term upward trend. A drop below the level of 108.95 will lead to further decline to 108.45.
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