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Today's review of the main currency pair of the Forex market will begin with the still relevant topic of the pandemic – COVID-19, after which we will touch on today's most important macroeconomic reports and consider several charts of EUR/USD to find the most acceptable and technically sound options for opening positions.
Yesterday, the 74th World Health Organization (WHO) Assembly began its work in the Swiss city of Geneva. Naturally, in the light of the realities of the last and already quite a long period, the main topic of the WHO assembly was the situation with curbing the further spread of coronavirus infection on a global scale. To do this, according to WHO experts, it is necessary to vaccinate at least 10% of the world's population by the end of the summer. I think it's no secret that in many countries, especially in developed countries, the vaccination campaign is normalizing (or has already normalized), after which it continues to gain momentum. But what about the poorest countries, which themselves, without the help of the world community, including WHO, will not be able to fight COVID-19 by vaccinating their population? For such purposes, WHO should have appropriate funding, including, among other things, contributions from the organization's member countries. However, according to the latest data, only about 16% of the WHO budget is accounted for by contributions from member states. In general, there is still something to work on, and this is quite normal. Regarding the pandemic itself and its spread, the situation is gradually improving. The total number of infections is slowly but surely decreasing. The main thing is not to stop and continue efforts to mass vaccinate the population to develop collective immunity to COVID-19.
If you look at today's economic calendar, you can find a fairly impressive block of statistics from Germany, which will be published before noon. However, the most important event today is the US consumer confidence indicator, which will be released at 15:00 London time. Let me remind you that last month this indicator showed the best values since the COVID-19 pandemic, namely 121.7. However, the May figures are expected to be slightly weaker, economists' forecasts are reduced to 119.4.
H4
Now we turn to the technical picture, which is formed on the euro/dollar pair. Since there were no significant changes on the daily chart, we will start the analysis with a four-hour timeframe. So, following the results of yesterday's trading, the quote showed growth, and Monday's session ended at 1.2213, which is above the important level of 1.2200, but below the maximum values of May 19 (1.2244). However, even now, at the moment of writing, the euro bulls are storming to the breakdown of this important level, and much will depend on how today's trading will eventually end relative to this significant mark. As noted yesterday, a true breakout of 1.2244 will send the quote to 1.2280, 1.2300, and 1.2350. If the breakout fails, and a reversal pattern of the candlestick analysis appears on the daily chart, another pullback of the pair is possible, or even a reversal in the south direction. Judging by H4, it is worth waiting for the closing of three consecutive candles above the level of 1.2244 and opening buy deals on a pullback to it. A clear bearish pattern on this timeframe will also be a signal for opening sales, but so far with small goals, in the area of 1.2200-1.2180.
H1
Looking at the hourly chart, we see that the bulls' plans for the euro are serious and they are quite determined about the breakdown of the sellers' resistance at 1.2244. It can be judged by the last two and quite large hour candles. In such a situation, it is unlikely to expect a pullback downwards for the pair's purchases from the depth, so the trading recommendations remain the same. After fixing above 1.2244 for three consecutive hourly candles on the rollback to the broken mark, we are preparing to buy. Alternatively, a pullback to the area of 1.2207 can also be tried for purchases of a single European currency. The appearance of a bearish candlestick pattern with a closing price below 1.2244 will signal the inability to overcome this level and will serve as a basis for opening sales to the already designated goals.
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