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Yesterday, the pound continued to lose its positions, although not as much as on Tuesday. In many respects, this is a consequence of the growing tension in relations with the European Union. In this case, we are talking about France, which from May 31 introduces restrictions for citizens arriving from Great Britain. It is assumed as a mandatory quarantine, passing tests for coronavirus and providing confirmation that the person is vaccinated. And this is despite the fact that the UK is almost a world leader in the fight against coronavirus. In Europe, it is the leader in the proportion of the vaccinated population, and may well become the first of the major countries that will completely abolish all restrictive measures. So it is not surprising that France's actions are perceived solely as a political step, which is the result of growing tensions between Europe and the UK. And the United Kingdom is significantly inferior to the European Union in terms of its scale and capabilities. So in the event of an increasingly tough confrontation, it is England that will suffer the greatest losses. It is this fact that scares investors, which led to the weakening of the pound.
At the same time, today is the busiest day in terms of macroeconomic reports. However, all data relate exclusively to the United States. But it is the US reports that are most important for the markets. And the forecasts are largely optimistic. In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits may decrease by 19,000. The number of repeated requests should be reduced by another 31,000. In addition, the volume of orders for durable goods should increase by 0.7%, which indicates further growth in consumer activity, which is the main engine of the US economy. And the second estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter will be published, which should once again show that the economy's decline of 2.4% was replaced by growth of 0.4%. In general, the US economy is showing a strong recovery, which will certainly contribute to the dollar's growth.
GDP (United States):
The GBPUSD pair has had a stable horizontal channel for a week now, bringing two important price coordinates, 1.4100 and 1.4235, together.
The market dynamics with the existing price fluctuations tends to accelerate and to a greater extent this is facilitated by the high speculative interest in the market.
If we proceed from the quote's current location, we could see that the bears hit the lower border of the price range during the Asian session, but there is still no breakthrough signal.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms, you could see a full price recovery relative to the 1.4240 ---> 1.3668 correction on the daily period, which signals the prevailing interest from the buyers.
In this situation, it is worth paying special attention to the boundaries of the specified range of 1.4100/1.4235 relative to the four-hour period. In order to receive a confirmation signal of the breakdown of the lower boundary, the quote must stay below 1.4090. Otherwise, we can't exclude a repetition of the regular basis of the past that is associated with the rebound.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, one can see that technical instruments signal a sell on the minute and hourly intervals due to the price convergence with the lower border of the range. The daily period, as before, is focused on the upward cycle, giving a buy signal.
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