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Logically, we were supposed to see at least some semblance of correction after such an inadequate market reaction to the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor. However, the words of the former head of the Federal Reserve System, and now the United States Treasury Secretary, only led to further growth of the single European currency. Ms. Janet Yellen is apparently the only one who believes that raising interest rates will be a boon for the American economy, while everyone else is sure otherwise. At least in the current situation, an increase in the refinancing rate will almost certainly have a negative impact on the pace of economic recovery. Although, the risks that the Federal Reserve will nevertheless raise the refinancing rate are quite high, as inflation continues to grow steadily, and is already well above the target level. At the same time, according to forecasts, it will continue to grow. But the Federal Reserve System itself assures everyone that there is no reason for concern, and the situation will soon stabilize by itself, so there is no need to talk about any increase in interest rates. And against this background, the words of Janet Yellen are perceived rather as preparing the public for the tightening of monetary policy. This is what undermined the dollar's position. Nevertheless, today, the dollar will still have the opportunity to improve its position. The data on open vacancies, the number of which may grow from 8,123 thousand to 8,200 thousand, should help it in this. This means that employment will continue to grow, and with it the unemployment rate will decrease.
Number of Job Openings (United States):
Of course, you can also pay attention to the data on the GDP of the euro area. Moreover, the rate of economic decline should slow down from -4.9% to -1.8%. And formally, this seems to be a serious reason for the single European currency to continue to strengthen. However, we are talking about the third assessment, which should coincide with the two previous ones. So, these data will not bring anything new, and therefore they will not have an impact on the market.
GDP change (Europe):
During the last trading day, the EUR/USD currency pair showed upward activity in the market, as a result of which the quote jumped to the level of 1.2200, where there was another stop and, as a result, a rollback.
Market dynamics show signs of acceleration, which is confirmed by the growth of the coefficient of speculative transactions in the market.
Based on the current location of the quote, we can see that during the Asian session, the euro rolled back to the area of the value of 1.2180, which is about 50% of the upward momentum of the previous day.
In this situation, it can be assumed that the rollback stage is still relevant among traders, and if the price is kept below 1.2175, a move in the direction of 1.2155 is not excluded. An upward cycle will be considered by traders if the price is held above 1.2210.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments on a 1-minute interval signal a sell, due to the rollback stage. Indicators on the hourly period work at the stage of upward impulses, signaling a buy.
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