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GBP/USD - 24H.
The GBP/USD currency pair continues to move in an exceptionally characteristic manner. If the euro/dollar is slightly adjusted from time to time, the pound/dollar only pretends to be changed. The quotes have been in a frankly sideways channel for almost a month, clearly visible even on the 24-hour timeframe. Thus, the US dollar paired with the pound can not even form a small pullback so far. The GBP/USD pair is also near its 3-year highs, and a couple of weeks ago, it even updated them (by a few points). However, this did not lead to new upward momentum. Markets are currently finding no new reasons to buy the British pound. And judging by the COT reports, the major players have completely stopped looking in the direction of purchasing the pound. At least in the last few weeks, the net position of non-profit traders has not been growing at all. It partly coincides with what is happening on the charts of the pair. At the same time, the price still cannot start a significant downward correction. The fundamental background from the UK remains very unconvincing. We definitely cannot conclude that it supports the British pound. Of course, there is some positive news. However, they are overlaid by the negative. Thus, most of the global factors remain in favor of the pound, and even Friday's decline in its quotes does not change the overall picture of the situation.
COT report.
During the last reporting week (June 1-7), the GBP/USD pair fell by 25 points. However, in general, no one doubts the direction of the global trend - upward, and the movement of recent weeks - an absolute flat. The latest COT report showed that professional players closed about the same number of buy and sell contracts. It is this moment that very clearly indicates what is happening now with the pound/dollar pair. However, in general, the pound continues to grow and can not even really adjust. At the same time, the size of the net position of large players practically does not change. Since the beginning of March, changes in the net position are insignificant, as shown by both the first and second indicators.
Moreover, the pound continues to show growth, simply not commensurate with the" bullish " mood of non-profit traders. Thus, we continue to talk about such a global factor as the infusion of trillions of dollars into the American economy, which is the main reason for strengthening the British currency. Look at the previous section of the trend between October 2020 and March 2021. The pound rose by 1,400 points, while the net positions of commercial and non-commercial groups of traders remained virtually unchanged. The major players did not increase purchases at this time. At the same time, the pound showed an increase of 1,400 points, almost without a single pullback.
There have been very few macroeconomic developments in the UK this week. All week, the calendar in the UK was empty. On Friday, Andrew Bailey spoke. However, none of them told the markets anything new and exciting. But traders have long been waiting for new hints about the curtailment of the monetary stimulus program and an increase in the key rate next year. Recall that earlier, several BA members also hinted that such a scenario is very likely if the British economy continues to grow at a high rate. However, they concluded about "high rates" only in the second quarter, when quarantine restrictions began to be lifted in the UK.
No official GDP data for this period has yet been released. And the first quarter, on the contrary, showed a contraction of the British economy. GDP data for April showed that the economy is not recovering as fast as experts expected. The increase was only 2.3% on a monthly basis, with a forecast of + 2.4%. The same applies to industrial production, which in April fell by 1.3% on a monthly basis, although forecasts predicted an increase of 1.2%. Thus, the latest reports have shown just that the British economy is not growing at exactly the expected pace. Therefore, from our perspective, even talking about the weakening of monetary stimulus now does not make much sense. Consequently, from this source, the British pound is unlikely to receive support in the near future.
Trading plan for the week of June 14-18:
1) The pound/dollar pair continues to be in an upward trend. Thus, buy orders on the 24-hour timeframe remain relevant, despite the current flat, and the nearest targets are the previous local high of 1.4240 and the resistance level of 1.4361. Given that global factors are now supporting the pound sterling, it is unlikely to expect a strong fall in the pair in the near future. If the pair's quotes consolidate below the critical line, we can discuss a possible decline in the pair to the Senkou Span B line. However, the flat of recent weeks significantly weakens the significance of the Ichimoku indicator lines. A more accurate picture is now shown by the Bollinger Bands indicator, which has narrowed to its minimum.
2) Sellers still do not have enough strength to start forming a downtrend. They do not have enough strength even for a tangible correction. Thus, if the price is fixed below the critical line, only then will it be possible to talk about downward movement. But not before.
Explanation of illustrations:
Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger Bands, MACD.
Support and resistance areas – areas from which the price has repeatedly bounced before.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the net position size of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group.
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