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On the four-hour chart, the wave pattern of the EUR/USD pair became more complex after the summarization of the results of the Fed meeting. The assumed wave 4 was transformed into a wave a of a new downward trend section, which may also turn out to be a three-wave one. At the same time, the internal wave pattern of this wave a also raises certain questions, since more than 5 waves are already visible inside it. However, complex correction structures can consist of a large number of waves that are embedded in one another. For example, any wave of the correction structure can consist of three sub-waves, which will be exactly the same size as the waves of a bigger scale, which does not contribute to a more accurate understanding of what is happening in the market. The complexity of the current wave pattern just indicates that the wave is corrective, not impulsive. Thus, the end of the construction of this wave and the departure of quotes from the reached lows within wave b is expected in the near future.
The news background of this instrument remained almost empty on Tuesday. If during the entire second half of last week the markets made decisions based on the results of the Fed meeting, then at the beginning of the new week, they have nothing to react to. Yesterday, Christine Lagarde made a speech, but the markets did not wait for any optimistic rhetoric. The ECB President spoke again about the insufficiently high levels of recovery after the pandemic, as well as the risks posed by new strains of coronavirus. In addition, she openly reiterated that it is still too early to consider the possibility of curtailing the program of stimulating the economy. Thus, the Euro currency did not wait for support and it is unlikely to wait until tomorrow, when the speech of the ECB Vice Chairman, Luis de Guindos, will take place.
The same goes for the speech of the ECB's Chief Economist Philip Lane. Earlier, it was Lane who confirmed Lagarde's position, saying that the EU economy cannot yet afford to remain without monetary stimulus. Thus, all representatives of the ECB repeated the same rhetoric. On the other hand, Jerome Powell may support the euro a little later. After the US dollar strongly increased, the Fed Chairman may refute his willingness to start discussing an early curtailment of the program to help the economy. It is possible that we will hear a saying that will calm the sellers of the main currency pair. Most likely, Powell will say that the markets have misunderstood him and the Fed will continue to buy assets worth $ 120 billion a month in the near future. At the same, he can mention that the discussion of curtailing this program is just a discussion. Real actions may follow much later than the present time.
Based on the analysis, the quotes of the instrument are expected to rise, but now within the correctional wave b. We should wait for the signal about the end of wave a and it may be an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 1.1836, which is equal to 76.4% in Fibonacci, but such a good signal may not be there. It is possible to buy the euro with targets around the levels of 1.1984 and 1.2051, which corresponds to 50.0% and 38.2% Fibonacci, for each MACD upward signal.
The wave pattern of the section of the new upward trend is not completely clear, but it is assumed to be completed now. Thus, the formation of three downward waves is expected and perhaps, the first wave is already almost done.
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