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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a close over the downward trend corridor and above the level of 1.3859. Thus, the growth process continues in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3906). Closing the pair's exchange rate above the level of 76.4% will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.3972), and the rebound will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency. The information background of Monday for the British was also quite weak. In the UK, the index of business activity in the services sector was also released, which turned out to be slightly better than traders expected. And this report was the only event of the past day. Nevertheless, the British dollar grew much more actively on Monday, as well as on Tuesday night, managing to show an increase of 65 points.
Thus, traders may begin to change their mood to "bullish". It is supported by the fact that there were no important news and events on Monday. Moreover, last Friday, the statistics were more on the side of the US currency and not the British. However, it is the British that has been showing growth for the last two days, when there are no special information grounds for this. Moreover, there is now a strong increase in the number of coronavirus diseases in the UK (in particular, the Indian strain "delta"). But at the same time, the British government still allows 100% occupancy of stadiums at football matches, and Boris Johnson said that plans to lift all quarantine restrictions on July 19 remain in force. Thus, the British government has so far refused to take seriously the threat of the fourth wave of the epidemic.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair continues the growth process on the 4-hour chart after the formation of bullish divergence and closed yesterday above the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the level of 1.4003. The MACD indicator is brewing a bearish divergence, which may allow traders to count on a slight drop in quotes.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes closed under an important trend line, which now allows traders to expect a further drop in quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3513).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a close over the second descending trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Monday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US were empty. The information background was very weak yesterday.
News calendar for the US and the UK:
UK - PMI index for the construction sector (08:30 UTC).
US - ISM Index of business activity in the service sector (14:00 UTC).
On Tuesday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US contain one entry each. However, each of these reports can cause only a small reaction of traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from June 29 for the British showed that the mood of the major players continues to change in favor of the bears. During the reporting week, speculators practically did not increase or get rid of any contracts. Thus, the "bearish" mood among the "Non-commercial" category of traders increased. However, it is only for formality since a total of 35 long contracts were closed and 454 short contracts were opened. However, the total number of long contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators still exceeds the total number of short contracts by 13,000 (two weeks ago the gap was 2 times). Thus, the British dollar has not yet lost all chances of resuming growth.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar were recommended when closing on the hourly chart above the downward corridor with targets of 1.3859 and 1.3906. Now, these positions should be kept open. I do not recommend selling the pound now, since there are few reasons for this and there are few signals.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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