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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair spent the whole day yesterday between the levels of 100.0% (1.3800) and 1.3741. Today, the day started with a slight drop in quotes. However, at this moment, the pair has started to grow again in the direction of the level of 1.3800. The rebound from it will again work in favor of the US currency and some fall in the direction of the corrective level of 1.3741. In general, I should note that the British pound has been trading as strangely as possible in recent days. Within each day, the advantage passes to the bulls, then to the bears. There is no clear direction of movement even within the day. Bear traders tried to close below the level of 1.3741 twice. However, they also failed twice. Thus, it is quite difficult for the US currency to show growth now. Important reports were released in the UK this morning. GDP grew by 0.8% m/m in May, although traders were waiting for 1.5%. The quarterly value for May was 3.6%, while traders expected 3.9%.
In addition, a complete failure was waiting for traders in the report on industrial production. The indicator rose by 0.8% in May, although expectations were 1.3%. The volume of production of the processing industry turned out to be negative at all (-0.1% m/m with a forecast of +0.9%). Construction volumes fell by 0.8% in May, although traders expected an increase of 0.9%. In general, all the reports from Britain this morning turned out to be a failure. Such information was simply bound to cause the fall of the British dollar. However, the pair continues to remain in a narrow price range, as if there were no statistics at all. Yesterday, when the information background was almost zero, the pair traded more actively. It is based on such movements and such a reaction to statistics that I conclude that at this time the Briton is in a nervous state, and traders do not fully understand how to relate to the current information background. Let me remind you that there is a new outbreak of coronavirus infection in the UK. And this factor should also have put pressure on the British position. But for now, the Briton is holding back from a new collapse.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart, after the formation of a bearish divergence at the MACD indicator and the rebound from the corrective level of 23.6%, performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and continues the process of falling towards the level of 38.2% (1.3642). The hourly chart also retains a "bearish" mood. However, bear traders are losing the initiative in the last few days, although there are plenty of factors for further decline. I believe that in the near future, the bulls may try to seize the initiative.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US were almost empty. The only event of the day (the application for unemployment benefits in the United States) did not affect the mood of traders.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
UK - change in GDP (06:00 UTC).
UK - change in the volume of industrial production (06:00 UTC).
UK - Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will make a speech (10:00 UTC).
On Friday, all the most interesting reports in the UK have already been released and did not have any impact on the mood of traders. Only the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, is ahead. The information background is noticeable today. However, traders do not want to pay attention to it.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from June 29 for the British showed that the mood of the major players continues to change in favor of the bears. During the reporting week, speculators practically did not increase or get rid of any contracts. Thus, the "bearish" mood among the "Non-commercial" category of traders increased. However, it is only for formality because a total of 35 long contracts were closed and 454 short contracts were opened. However, the total number of long contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators still exceeds the total number of short contracts by 13 thousand (two weeks ago the gap was 2 times). Thus, the British dollar has not yet lost all chances of resuming growth.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend new purchases of the British with the targets of 1.3800 and 1.3859 if the pair performs a rebound from the level of 1.3741 on the hourly chart. I do not recommend selling the pound now, since there are very few reasons for this and there are very few signals.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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