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The EUR/USD pair is expected to trade around the spot of 1.0300 and 1.0000 by the end of this month , according to trading economics global macro models and our expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.0000 in July or August.
From a technical perspective, the overnight swing low, around the 1.0272 area, now seems to act as a pivotal point, below which spot prices could extend the fall towards the 1.0162 mark. Some follow-through selling would make the EUR/USD pair vulnerable to challenging the valence mark in the near term.
The EUR/USD pair rate has fallen over 11% from its July high of 1.0449 to just over 1.0272 at the time of writing on 07 July, despite the European Central Bank (ECB) finally moving to hike interest rates - it is a high risk and jeopardy. The EUR/USD pair fluctuates in the 1.1000 area, with risk-shifting increasingly to the downside.
For these reasons we would be very difficult to see further significant decline for the euro before tomorrow, with signs of stabilization and correction to be the most possible scenario.
A choppy morning saw the EUR/USD pair fall to an early morning low of 1.0162 before rising to a high of 1.0272 (pivot point).
An extended rally could test resistance at 1.0272 and the second major resistance Level (R2) at 1.0339. The third major resistance level (R3) sits at 1.0449.
The direction of the EUR/USD pair may reflect the strength of either the EU or US economy. Moreover, the EUR to US dollar rate may reflect the overall global market sentiment.
We had already shared in our previous topic that the psychological price sets at the level of 1.0000.
The EUR/USD weekly forecast is mildly tilted towards the downside as the pair failed to sustain above the 1.1000 area after several attempts.
The EUR/USD pair weekly forecast is mildly tilted towards the downside as the pair failed to sustain above the 1.0272 area after several attempts.
Conclusion :
The general trend of the EUR/USD pair is still stronger to the downside. Investors will not care about the arrival of technical indicators towards oversold levels as far as interacting with the factors of the gains of the US dollar and the continued faltering of the euro. The closest bearish targets are currently 1.0100 and then the parity price for the currency pair. New targets 1.0050 and 1.0000 (historical target).
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