15.07.202113:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: plan for the US session on July 15 (analysis of morning deals).

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to several levels, from which I gave a precise scenario for action. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the trade deals. An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above the resistance of 1.3860, together with insufficient data on the unemployment rate in the UK, formed an excellent signal to open short positions, after which the pound fell more than 40 points down to the support area of 1.3829. Then the buyers got down to business and quickly won back this area. The reverse test from top to bottom formed an excellent entry point into long positions, after which a great shot of the pair up by more than 60 points took place. For the second half of the day, the technical picture has partially changed.

And although the following speech of Jerome Powell will take place today, the market will also follow the news on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Good indicators can return the pressure on the pound. The ideal option for buyers will be a decline and the formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.3867. Its protection forms a signal to open long positions in the hope of recovering to a new resistance of 1.3902, which we have not yet reached. The level is the maximum of this month, so it will not be easy to break through higher. A break of 1.3902 and a test of this area from top to bottom will form a new buy signal for GBP/USD and open a direct road to the maximum of 1.3937. The longer-term target remains the resistance of 1.3978, where I recommend taking the profit. Suppose the pressure on GBP/USD returns in the afternoon, and the bulls will not be able to offer anything in the support area of 1.3867. In that case, it is best to postpone long positions until the level of 1.3834 is updated, or you can buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points inside the day from the minimum of 1.3802.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The initial task of the bears is to protect the resistance of 1.3902 now, which buyers have already targeted. The formation of a false breakdown during the speech of the Fed chairman forms a good signal for the sale of the pound, which will push the pair to the support of 1.3867. Its breakdown, together with strong data on the US labor market, will lead to the demolition of several buyers' stop orders and collapse GBP/USD to a minimum of 1.3834, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the area of 1.3802. In the absence of active actions of sellers in the area of 1.3902, I recommend postponing sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.3937, where you can open short positions immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen in the area of 1.3978.

The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for July 6 recorded an increase in both long and short positions, which led to the rise in the net position. Despite the weak fundamental data on the UK GDP growth rate in May this year, the pound continues to be in demand after the correction observed during the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. After a major movement of GBP/USD down, traders are showing special interest, and the May data is not an obstacle to building up long positions, as everyone is waiting for more active economic growth in the summer period, even despite the Indian strain of coronavirus. However, the pound's growth may be limited not only due to a sharp increase in the incidence of diseases in the summer but also the fact that the British regulator will not rush to change the bond purchase program is also a deterrent to the upward trend. While serious inflationary pressure in the UK will not be noticed, the Bank of England is unlikely to rush to change its policy. Despite this, the optimal scenario is to buy the pound with each good decline in a pair with the US dollar. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 51,596 to the level of 57,232, while short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 33,873 to the level of 35,329. As a result, the non-commercial net position grew to 21,903 against 17,723. The closing price of last week decreased and amounted to 1.3853 against 1.3878.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is already above 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to take over the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3880 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. In case of a decline in the pair, the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3815 will act as support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.