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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its growth process above the level of 1.3741 on Thursday. Today, the quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and returned to the level of 1.3741. The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this level will work in favor of the British dollar and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3800). Closing quotes below the level of 1.3741 will increase the chances of continuing the fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3679). Meanwhile, news exclusively related to the pandemic and Brexit continues to arrive from the UK. I have already said that the incidence rate remains high, although it has decreased in recent days. However, this is not the only problem in Britain at the moment. Today, it became known that Boris Johnson proposed to the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to review the Northern Ireland protocol, which is ineffective and hinders the establishment of relations between Britain and the EU.
According to many experts, the Northern Ireland Protocol creates a customs zone between Ireland and the rest of the UK, which London tried to prevent with all its might. In 2021, the British had already violated the provisions of this protocol several times, and then there were comments from Johnson and Frost that the protocol should be revised. However, during telephone conversations with Ursula von der Leyen, Boris Johnson received a decisive refusal on his request. The President of the European Commission told Johnson that the European Union would show flexibility in implementing the protocol. However, there can be no question of revising it. As many journalists note, this is a strong blow for the British Prime Minister, as he has repeatedly promised that there will be no border and customs zone. However, earlier representatives of the British government have already made it clear that they are ready to violate the protocol's provisions. And the European Union made it clear that any violation will be considered in court.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar after forming a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator. Thus, the decline in quotes can be continued at the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3642). There are no new divergences today. The rebound of the pair's rate from the level of 38.2% will allow traders to count on the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870).
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the calendar of economic events in the UK was empty. In the US - only one completely insignificant report on applications for unemployment benefits. Thus, the information background did not have any impact on traders.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - changes in the volume of retail trade, including and excluding fuel costs (06:00 UTC).
UK - PMI index for the manufacturing sector (08:30 UTC).
UK - PMI index for the service sector (08:30 UTC).
US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (13:45 UTC).
US - PMI index for the service sector (13:45 UTC).
On Friday, a retail trade report was already released in the UK, which only slightly differed from traders' expectations. Business activity indices will be released a little later, and after lunch, business activity indices in the United States will be released. However, these reports are unlikely to cause a reaction from traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on July 13 for the British showed that the mood of major players is again becoming more "bearish." During the reporting week, speculators increased 1,729 short contracts and got rid of 8,054 long contracts. Thus, the "bullish" mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has weakened again. Over the past four weeks, both for the euro and for the pound, the mood of traders has become more "bearish." However, the changes in the British are still less pronounced. However, it is for the British that the number of long and short contracts in the hands of speculators is already almost the same. Thus, it is already possible to talk about the lack of an advantage for bull traders.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, it is recommended to buy the British dollar if there is a rebound from 1.3741 with a target of 1.3800 on the hourly chart. It is recommended to sell the pound if the closing is made under the level of 1.3741 on the hourly chart with the targets of 1.3679 and 1.3600.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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