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More attention will be paid to technical nuances in today's analysis of the pound/dollar currency pair. However, before that, let's talk about the external background that affects the price dynamics of the British currency paired with the US dollar. As you know, despite the rather dangerous and insidious COVID-19 strain, the British government stubbornly does not want to recognize this as a threat and has lifted all social restrictions. In this regard, a significant part of market participants have doubts whether the United Kingdom will be able to restore its economy, which it was before the invasion of the coronavirus epidemic. Naturally, such doubts and fears are doing the British pound a disservice, expressed in pressure on the GBP. It is worth noting here that after removing all social blockages in the UK, the number of infected people jumped. I don't know if it coincided or the restrictions should have been lifted more carefully and gradually. We are all already well aware that during the rampant COVID-19 pandemic, inverters completely lose their risk appetite. They prefer safe assets, among which the US dollar has been and remains the most popular haven since the beginning of this whole coronavirus epic.
I believe that this is due to concerns about the recovery of the entire global economy, and since the US is the leading one, all eyes are turned to the Fed and the speeches of its leaders. As for the president, Biden rarely comments on the situation regarding COVID-19 and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, after Joe Biden took office, an unprecedented American rescue package was adopted, where two trillion dollars were distributed, taking into account the faster recovery of the American economy. And this is the right move since the main competitor for world economic leadership (China) is already actually on its heels. The States can't let the Chinese go ahead. It will be a lost trade war, which will negatively affect the role of the United States as a global hegemon. Anyway, let's go back to the GBP/USD currency pair and start debriefing with a weekly timeframe.
Weekly
Looking at the last weekly candle, you will understand everything. After falling to a strong technical level of 1.3570, the bulls for the pound came to their senses and began to correct the situation with maximum activity. As a result, a reversal model of the "Hammer" candle analysis appeared on the chart, thanks to which the breakdown of one of the key supports of 1.3667 has to be recognized as false because the closing price of the week was higher than this level. Concerning the very long lower shadow of the candle, it is highly likely that the market does not want to move in a southerly direction, which means it will grow. The beginning of weekly trading confirms this hypothesis. After the appearance of candles with such long tails, it is hardly possible to seriously count on a downward scenario. Therefore, judging by the weekly timeframe, I will assume the growth of the British currency against the US dollar.
Daily
On the daily chart, it is already clear that the players for an increase in the exchange rate have seriously taken up the task and are eager to continue the rise of the quote. However, if you stretch the grid of the Fibonacci indicator for a fall of 1.4247-1.3570, the current growth should still be considered corrective. To continue implementing the upward scenario, the bulls on the pound need to break through the resistance of sellers at 1.3785, where the maximum trading values were shown on July 22. It should be noted here that the breakdown of this level is complicated by the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator located directly on it. In general, only a true breakdown of the resistance of 1.3785 will open the way to higher goals. It is worth highlighting the mark of 1.3830, where the 38.2 Fibo level passes from the above-indicated downward movement. At the moment, I dare to assume an upward scenario, which will still be corrective. In this regard, I recommend buying the pound after short-term declines to the area of 1.3735-1.3720 or after the breakdown of the resistance of 1.3785 on a rollback to this level.
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