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The GBP/USD pair climbed as much as 1.2085 today where it has found resistance. Now, it is trading lower at 1.2037 at the time of writing. In the short term, the rate could test and retest the broken levels before jumping higher.
Fundamentally, the CBI Industrial Order Expectations came in at 8 points below the 13 points forecasted. The GBP rallied today as the UK economic data came in better than expected on Friday. Tomorrow, the UK is to release the CBI Realized Sales which is expected at -10 points.
On the other hand, the US CB Consumer Confidence is expected at 96.8 points in July versus 98.7 points in June. The HPI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, Richmond Manufacturing PMI, and the New Home Sales indicators will be released as well.
As you can see on the H4 chart, the rate found resistance at the 50% (1.2084) retracement level and now it retests the 1.2033 level. As long as it stays above this level, the rate could resume its leg higher.
The 1.2056 represented an upside obstacle. Unfortunately, the rate failed to stay above it signaling exhausted buyers. Technically, the price action signaled that the downside movement ended and that the GBP/USD pair could develop an upside reversal also because the Dollar Index is in a corrective phase.
Testing and retesting the 1.2033 level, registering only false breakdowns may announce a bullish momentum.
A new higher high, making a valid breakout above 50% (1.2090) could activate an upside continuation and could bring new long opportunities. The channel's upside line is seen as a potential upside target.
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