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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3884) on the small Fibo grid yesterday. The rebound from this level worked in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3830) on the senior Fibo grid. However, yesterday's growth was associated with the report on US inflation, which did not show a slowdown at the end of July. This morning, an important report on UK GDP has already been released. However, traders did not consider it necessary to work it out. The British economy grew by 4.8% in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter. It is exactly the value that traders expected, so the lack of their reaction may be due to the coincidence of expectations and reality. At the end of June, GDP grew by 1.0% m/m, slightly higher than forecasts for this period.
Thus, the GDP report did not please the bull traders too much. However, it did not disappoint them either. But the report on industrial production in June was significantly weaker than expected. The indicator fell by 0.7% m/m, although traders expected an increase of 0.3% m/m. The pound, therefore, experienced a little bear pressure, but in general, the reaction to these reports was very weak. Closing the pair's exchange rate above the 23.6% (1.3884) level will allow us to count on the resumption of growth in the direction of the levels of 1.3909 and 1.3945. If you look at the hourly chart as a whole, it becomes obvious that the growth of the US currency in recent weeks is very weak. It seems that the dollar is in demand among traders, but in two weeks, it managed to grow by only 170 points. And this is if you count from the low to the peak of the movement. Thus, as in the case of the euro/dollar, the US currency does not currently have unambiguous market support.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a drop below the level of 38.2% on the small Fibo grid yesterday. However, the report on inflation in the US led to a reversal in favor of the British dollar and the return of quotes to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). The pair's rebound from this level may work in favor of the US currency and resume falling towards the level of 1.3802 (yesterday's low) or slightly lower. It is still very difficult to count on strong movements of the pound/dollar pair.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
UK - change in GDP (06:00 UTC).
UK - change in the volume of industrial production (06:00 UTC).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On Thursday, the calendar of economic events in the UK contains two important reports, and both have already been released and have not had any special impact on the mood of traders. Ahead is only a report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, for which there is also very little hope. Most likely, the pair will move very weakly today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on August 3 for the British showed that the mood of major players changed to "bullish," as speculators opened 3,370 long contracts and closed 3,735 short contracts in the reporting week. Thus, the total number of long contracts on their hands again exceeds the total number of short contracts. Such a change in the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders may mean that major players are not ready for further sales of the British dollar. If so, then the British currency may begin to be in demand again among speculators. I also want to note that the total number of long and short contracts for all traders is now almost the same. Therefore, bull traders still do not have a strong advantage yet.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend buying the pair if there is a rebound from the level of 1.3824 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3884. I recommend selling the pound today with a target of 1.3830 since the rebound from the level of 1.3884 on the hourly chart has already been completed.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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