25.08.202115:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin begins to gradually lose ground

Bitcoin is beginning to gradually lose ground after talks that the cryptocurrency has started to return to the exchange again and clearly not to strengthen the rate. In the futures market, positions worth $600 million have been liquidated over the past day, and the number of small addresses holding from 0.01 to 1 ETH and from 0.001 to 0.1 BTC has reached parity. All this suggests that the major players are not yet eager to return to the market, but mainly speculative traders are acting, but this affects the investor fear index and one can only guess what this will lead to.

But once again – there is no reason to panic, the main thing is how bitcoin will behave in the event of a decline to the 200-day moving average – that's where real connoisseurs of medium-term investment and crypto enthusiasts will show themselves. Experts also note an increase in the bitcoin network by only 15%, while the Ethereum network has shown a jump of 58% since the beginning of the year, which indicates the continued popularity of this altcoin among new players. Of course, the boom in NFT has contributed to this.

Before we talk about the technical picture of bitcoin and ether, I would like to say a few words about the grandiose plans of another company counting on the bitcoin ETF. Valkyrie Investments believes that it is their fund that is at the top of the list for approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission of the first bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund in the United States. The Nashville, Tennessee-based firm requested regulatory approval two months ago to create the fund. They are sure that they were among the first to do this, after the positive comments of the Securities and Exchange Commission on this matter.

According to Steven McClurg, chief investment officer at Valkyrie Investments, the application remained hidden for a long time, as it allows smaller players and companies to submit documents confidentially, without fear of copying their ideas by major players. However, it is worth noting that here we are talking about a futures background, and not about a physical bitcoin. Let me remind you that at the beginning of this summer, the new chairman of the SEC, Gary Gensler, said that the regulator may be more open to bitcoin ETFs if it is based on futures, and not on the cryptocurrency itself. Immediately after that, a number of large management companies, including Invesco, hurried to apply for this type of product. Even though futures contracts require larger margin collateral, it is expected that this product will also be in high demand among institutional investors. However, submitting the first application does not mean that Valkyrie Investments will be the first to be approved.

Recently, Gensler has raised the topic of ETF many times, which must comply with strict SEC rules for mutual funds. This is done in order to help provide investors with all the necessary protection. Most of the pending applications for ETFs were filed in accordance with the laws of the 1930s, which are not quite suitable for the current situation with the cryptocurrency market. Many cryptocurrency supporters have expressed concern about the bitcoin futures fund, which they say is unnecessarily complex. Some experts believe that the Securities and Exchange Commission is being overly cautious and that they should not act so harshly against the newly emerging cryptocurrency industry.

As for the technical picture of bitcoin, its return to the area of $47,800 is not something terrible but simply has a corrective character. But the decline to the next level in the area of $45,900 will have a key role for the further short-term direction of the trading instrument. There is a 200-day moving average, which has a great impact on institutional investors. A break in this range will push BTC to a minimum of $42,500, and then it will be close to $37,300. It will be possible to talk about a new upward wave of bitcoin after a real exit beyond the resistance of $50,400, followed by an update of $54,400 and $58,000.

As for the technical picture of the ether, we remain in a hard channel, which is a good prerequisite for further growth of the trading instrument due to the accumulation of positions. A break of $3,300 will surely send ETH to the highs of $3,600 and $3,890. The nearest major support level is seen in the area of $3,000. Its breakdown will collapse the trading instrument to the lows of $2,700 and $2,440.