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There is nothing surprising in the fact that the rise in inflation in Europe from 2.2% to 3.0% has caused the pound to fall. And it's not just that they expected a slightly more modest growth, only up to 2.7%, but a complete misunderstanding of what the European Central Bank's further actions are. The rapid rise in inflation threatens the economic recovery and may even provoke a new recession, and the central bank is simply obliged to do something about it. But if the Federal Reserve has long announced a gradual tightening of monetary policy, giving the markets time to prepare, the ECB is still behaving indecisively. At the same time, the situation is already becoming critical, and investors fear that the ECB's actions may come as a complete surprise. In general, all this became the reason for the weakening of the single European currency, which, through the dollar index, pulled the pound along with it.
Inflation (Europe):
Nevertheless, the pound has a chance to somewhat correct its position today, at least during the European trading session. The reason for optimism should be the data on unemployment, the level of which may decrease from 7.7% to 7.6%. Of course, the values are still quite high, but the very fact of the gradual improvement of the situation on the labor market is important.
Unemployment rate (Europe):
However, the pound will resume its decline after the US session opens. And again, the reason will be the data on the labor market. Not the unemployment rate, but the change in employment in the United States. It should increase by 500,000. This is a lot. Moreover, the unemployment rate in the United States is not only lower than in Europe, but even close to the normal values customary in pre-crisis times. In other words, the US labor market continues to steadily recover. This is exactly what is the main condition for starting the curtailment of the quantitative easing program. That is, the United States is confidently moving towards tightening monetary policy. Moreover, it is planned and predictable. So the dollar clearly has enough reason to rise.
Employment Change (United States):
The GBPUSD pair, following the corrective pattern from the pivot point at 1.3600, reached the resistance level of 1.3800, where there was a reduction in the volume of long positions.
The price rebound from the level of 1.3800 returned the quote to the area of the 38.2 Fibonacci line, where market participants temporarily slowed down the downward movement.
The trading chart of the daily period shows a downward movement from the level of 1.4000, while the scale of the correction is 50% of the downward cycle. For the downward move to lose its force, the correction scale must be 70–75%. Otherwise, the original movement may resume.
Expectations and prospects:
In this situation, we consider a subsequent decline in the pound if the price stays below the Fibonacci level of 38.20-1.3725 in a four-hour period. In this case, a path will open in the direction of 1.3680.
Comprehensive indicator analysis gives a sell signal based on the short-term and intraday periods due to the price rebound from the level of 1.3800.
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