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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair closed on Wednesday under the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837) and continues the process of falling towards the level of 1.1772. Let me remind you that the mood of traders changed the day before yesterday to "bearish," as the closing was performed under the ascending trend line. However, today, everyone should focus on the information background. The long-awaited ECB meeting will occur today (or rather, it will end today), and its results will be presented. By and large, there is only one question for all the major central banks of the world right now. This question is: when will one or another regulator begin to reduce the volume of the economic stimulus program? This issue has been facing the Fed for several months now. But the situation is the same in the European Union. The PEPP (Emergency Asset Purchase Program) program continues to operate.
Moreover, according to Christine Lagarde, it will continue until the end of March 2022 at least. Furthermore, Lagarde has repeatedly made it clear that the program can be extended for a longer period. And the need may indeed arise.
In the European Union and many other countries of the world, there has been an increase in the number of coronavirus cases for several months in a row. Despite the ongoing vaccination process, which is at a high level in the European Union. Thus, many economists fear that the economy may start to slow down again. And in this case, it will be impractical to reduce the PEPP program since new incentives may be needed. It is the question that the ECB will have to answer today. If the European economy continues to recover and shows no signs of slowing down, then the ECB may announce a reduction in the volume of monthly asset purchases. If not, then everything will remain as it was. For the European currency, this event will be of great importance. If the ECB even hints at a possible reduction in the QE program, this may return the euro to an upward plane. Otherwise, the fall of the euro/dollar pair may continue.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a rebound from the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890) and a reversal in favor of the US currency. The process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782) continues. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890). Closing the pair's exchange rate at the level of 76.4% will increase the chances of continuing the fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1606).
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - publication of the ECB decision on the main interest rate (11:45 UTC).
EU - monetary policy report (11:45 UTC).
EU - ECB press conference (12:30 UTC).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On September 9, only one event will take place in the European Union. As I have already said, the results of the ECB meeting will be presented, and a press conference with Christine Lagarde will be given. In America, the information background is very weak today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more "bearish" again during the reporting week. Major players closed 1,968 long contracts on the euro and opened 11,139 short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased to 192 thousand, and the total number of short contracts increased to 180 thousand. Let me remind you that for several months, speculators have been actively getting rid of the euro. However, at the same time, the EU currency itself is falling very slowly and weakly. Moreover, in the last couple of weeks, it has been growing in tandem with the dollar, despite the indications of COT reports.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend buying the pair with a target of 1.1919 on the hourly chart if a close is made above the level of 76.4% (1.1837). I recommended selling if there is a close under the level of 1.1837 on the hourly chart, with the target of 1.1772. It should be kept open for now.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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