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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
There were several market signals on Monday and most of them were very successful. For example, the signal to buy at 1.1704 coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area, so the pair was able to climb up by 10 pips. A similar scenario then occurred not long after, which resulted in another 30-pip increase.
The latest PPI data from Germany was the main driver of growth as the figure indicated the fastest growth since 1974. Destasis said the index rose 10.4% to 12% last August, which is the largest increase since December 1974.
Meanwhile, the recent speech of ECB member Isabel Schnabel t did not concern monetary policy so the market was not affected.
Today, there are no important statistics from the Euro area so the emphasis will be shifted to the US indicators, which will be released later in the afternoon. These are the volume of issued building permits and the number of new foundations. Current account on the balance of payments will also be interesting as good data may bring back demand for dollar, which will lead to a decline in EUR / USD.
For long positions:
Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1745 (green line on the chart) and then take profit at the level of 1.1789 (thicker green line on the chart). There is little chance that the pair will climb this week. Only weak data on the US and resolution on the debt limit will support risky assets. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.
It is also possible to buy at 1.1720, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1745 and 1.1789.
For short positions:
Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1720 (red line on the chart) and then take profit at the level of 1.1674. A decline is very likely because the Euro area does not have any important statistics scheduled for today. Also, the lack of clarity on the US debt limit will significantly support dollar this week. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.
It is also possible to sell at 1.1745, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1720 and 1.1674.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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