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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
There was a signal to sell in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but it had to be ignored because the MACD line was far away from zero. Following that was a signal to buy, but there was no large movement in the pair.
By afternoon, another sell signal appeared, and this time it was able to provoke a 25-pip decline. Apparently, the MACD line at that time was going down from zero, allowing traders to safely take short positions.
Disappointing data from Germany dragged euro down yesterday. Then, the situation escalated amid strong US data and statements from FOMC members Richard Clarida and Raphael Bostic.
But today euro may rally if inflation in Germany exceeds expectations. Growth may not last long though because industrial output of the Euro area may put pressure on the currency. Inflation data from the US may also provoke further increase in dollar, which will accordingly lead to a fall in EUR / USD ..
For long positions:
Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1565 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1594. But the price will increase only if Germany reports a strong inflation data.
In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1545, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1565 and 1.1594.
For short positions:
Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1545 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1505. Pressure will return if inflation and output in the Euro area comes out weak, and if the US releases a strong CPI report. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1565, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1545 and 1.1505.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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