23.12.202114:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gazprom gives no choice to EU, gas is trading at $1,900 per thousand cubic meters

Europe's energy crisis is still at its peak. During Tuesday's trading session on the futures market an all-time record was reached. Natural gas was traded at $2,190 per 1,000 cubic meters. On Wednesday, EU gas futures also exceeded $2,000.

Today, on December 23, quotations started to fall to $1,900 and lower. The price of January futures on the Dutch TTF index, Europe's most liquid hub, amounted to $1,916 at the start of trading and dropped to $1,823.9 at 10.09 MSK. If this value is compared with the settlement price on Wednesday, the decline was 9.7%.

One of the reasons for the recent jump is that Russian gas deliveries through the main Yamal-Europe pipeline were completely halted as Gazprom did not book capacity on Thursday. The fact that the certification of Russia's Nord Stream 2 ambitious geopolitical project has been severely delayed, might be the trigger for this decision. Russian gas giant Gazprom was obviously extremely annoyed about this situation, and it decided to explain clearly to its European partners that they would be in trouble without Nord Stream 2.

Gazprom's natural gas exports declined significantly in the fourth quarter. During the first 8 months of the current year exports to non-CIS countries grew by 26%, while by mid-December this figure dropped to 4.8%.

The European half-empty storage facilities indicate that the Russian gas company has an undeniable advantage in the energy sector. The soaring gas prices in Europe confirm this fact. Even US LNG will not be able to help here. It is impossible to increase US exports of commodities to the required quantities in the near future. Gazprom's energy resources are Europe's only hope for a more or less comfortable winter. It is extremely essential to launch Nord Stream-2.

Notably, European gas prices started to grow significantly in April this year, when the average price on the spot according to the TTF index was in the range of $250-300 per 1,000 cubic meters. In late summer, the contract price with day-ahead supplies reached and exceeded $600. In October, the index unexpectedly exceeded $1,000, and in December it doubled in price.

Wholesale electricity spot prices in Germany reached 425 euros, or $480 per megawatt hour. Benchmark natural gas prices in the Netherlands have climbed to the equivalent of $50 per million British thermal units, which is nearly 12 times higher than the similar US price. The reason is that renewable sources do not produce enough electricity, utilities are forced to burn more gas, thereby emptying gas storage facilities. As a result, the level of gas storage in Europe is now much lower than usual for this time of year.