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Although, unlike the UK, the European Union had a full working day yesterday, the single European currency simply stood still. And this despite the fact that after the opening of the US trading session, the pound was even able to grow somewhat. But both European currencies are clearly overbought, and the speculative component seems to be going off scale. After all, their growth last week was completely unfounded. Rather, on the contrary, they should have shown a rather moderate decline, due to fairly good macroeconomic statistics in the United States. So a local rebound, and as a peak and a return to the values of the beginning of the previous week, suggests itself. And it cannot be said that this very rebound was prevented yesterday by a weekend in Great Britain, as the pound was able to strengthen. Even if the growth was rather symbolic.
A simple conclusion follows from this that the speculative excitement is still extremely high, which means that today the dollar may continue to lose its positions. Although, it is quite possible that the pound's growth from yesterday became possible solely due to the so-called thin market. In any case, no macroeconomic factors will be taken into account. The US Home Price Index that will be released today, with all due respect, is at best a marginal indicator. So its expected decline from 17.7% to 16.8% will have little effect on anything. This indicator influences inflation even less than the producer price index. And its decline does not in any way hint at the possibility of a slowdown in the growth rate of consumer prices.
House Price Index (United States):
Yesterday, the GBPUSD currency pair locally renewed last week's high, but this did not lead to drastic changes, the quote remained in the same place. This confirms the formation of stagnation, which in the long term may become a catalyst for trade forces in the event of new speculative price surges.
The technical instrument RSI in the four-hour period moves within the 70 line. This signals an overbought pound.
Despite a fairly strong price jump, the trend is still downward relative to the daily period. The upward movement may well be classified as corrective.
Expectations and prospects:
Due to the fact that there is a high speculative interest in the market, price jumps, which will lead to the end of the stagnation, cannot be ruled out. So local buy positions are considered by traders above 1.3450 in a four-hour period. This may lead to prolongation of the correctional movement towards 1.3510.
The downward trend scenario will become relevant at the time the price stays below 1.3370. This will lead to a decline towards 1.3290.
Comprehensive indicator analysis gives a variable signal based on short-term and intraday periods due to price stagnation. Technical indicators in the medium term indicate a downward trend, signaling a sell.
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