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Coal prices in China fell to record lows this week after Indonesia allowed some shipments to leave ports, which hints that the recently-implemented ban on exports may be reconsidered.
Earlier this month, the world's largest coal exporter imposed a temporary ban on overseas shipments for fear that it might not have enough supply in the local market.
President Joko Widodo also threatened miners with license revocation if they fail to deliver the required amount of coal for domestic consumption.
This move raised concerns about supply disruptions, with Morgan Stanley analysts noting that Indonesia's coal export ban would effectively cut about 40% of the maritime coal market overnight during peak consumption season in the northern hemisphere.
The government will discuss the ban again on Wednesday, although it already released 14 cargos as buyers have already paid for the goods.
Citigroup analyst Justian Rama said: "No more export ban means that the Indonesia coal miners should resume normal activity. There could be some retreat or weakness in the coal price."
Such a decline will bring relief to coal markets, especially since prices have been soaring since the end of last year, after Europe continued to sink deeper into its energy crisis.
The rally prompted concerns on the security of supplies because in Indonesia, inventory was lower than normal, which was the reason for the proposed ban. The government was worried that there may be massive power outages even though there is already a mechanism to provide sufficient coal for local consumption.
China is the largest buyer of Indonesian coal and the world's largest consumer of the dirtiest fossil fuels.
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