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Good afternoon, dear traders! On the 1H chart, the GBP/USD pair has been maintaining its upward movement it resumed on Wednesday. It has been rising for several weeks. The pair managed to close above the Fibonacci retracement level of 76.4% - 1.3675. It may indicate a further increase to the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.3834. Trading volumes were quite high yesterday, so the pair's movement was quite sharp. Currently, the pound sterling is climbing steadily as traders pay zero attention to fundamental factors. In my article on the euro/dollar pair, I wrote about the speeches of the Fed board members. They all took a hawkish stance, hinting at the interest rate hike. They believe that this is the most efficient measure to curb surging inflation. Yesterday, the Us released fresh inflation figures, which showed the acceleration to 7.0%. As a result, inflation rose to the highest level in four decades. However, earlier, the greenback added gains following the hawkish statements of FOMC members. Now, traders ignore this news as well as inflation data. So, the US dollar failed to resume an upward momentum.
Thus, the mood of traders has changed dramatically in recent weeks and now they do not consider the US dollar as an attractive long-term asset. The pound sterling has been growing for a long time. The euro resumed growth only yesterday. Interestingly, there has been practically no positive news from the UK. It is quite odd taking into account the pound sterling's rally. Like in the US, the UK is facing a surge in the Omicron cases. However, the government does not intend to impose lockdown measures. Apart from that, Boris Johnson apologized for attending a "bring your own booze" party in Downing Street during the first coronavirus lockdown. Many people find such behavior of a high-ranking official appalling. It may cost him a political career. A political crisis is brewing as Boris Johnson is losing his supporters every day.
On the 4H chart, the pair is rising steadily, having failed to close below the ascending trend line. The pound sterling did not slide even after the formation of two bearish divergences. The quotes consolidated above the correction level of 38.2% - 1.3642. So, the pair is likely to approach the next Fibo level of 23.6% - 1.3870. If the price fixes below the trend line, the US currency may gain momentum. As a result, the pair has all the changes to tumble to the correction level of 50.0% - 1.3457.
Economic calendar for US and UK:
US – Producer Price Index (PPI), (13:30 UTC).
US – Initial jobless claims report (13:30 UTC).
On Thursday, the economic calendar for the UK is empty again. The US will release two reports that are of less significance to investors. Therefore, the market activity is likely to be low today.
Outlook for GBP/USD:
I recommend opening short positions on the pound sterling if it closes below the ascending trend line on the 4H chart with a target level of 1.3497. It is better to open long positions near the target level of 1.3642 as the price rebounded from the level of 50.0% - 1.3497. If it consolidates above the level of 1.3642, open long positions near the target levels of 1.3834 and 1.3870.
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