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EUR/USD 5M
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade with the same dynamics and in the same direction as on Wednesday evening. It was not for nothing that we said in the last review that we should not rush to conclusions, and the reaction to the Federal Reserve meeting may persist for a day after the release of the results. And so it turned out in practice. After Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech took place, which made it clear that the Fed had taken an even "tougher" course to tighten monetary policy, the US dollar began to grow by leaps and bounds, which is absolutely logical, given the rhetoric of the head of the Fed. Now traders expect that the Fed will raise the rate from 5 to 7 times this year, and will also begin to unload its balance sheet, which means removing excess money from the economy. All these are bullish factors for the dollar. Therefore, the dollar rose on Wednesday evening and throughout Thursday. However, this is not all. A report on GDP for the fourth quarter was published in America on Thursday, which significantly exceeded the forecast values and also contributed to the strengthening of the US currency. However, after that, the dollar's growth was not so strong, so we believe that the Fed meeting and its results remained in the first place for traders yesterday. Now let's understand the trading signals and transactions. In fact, the signals began to form on Wednesday evening, but we do not recommend trading during such important events, the reaction of the market to which it is impossible to predict in advance. In principle, it was possible to open short positions only after the price settled below the extreme level of 1.1274, from which two bounces had previously been made. But it was not a binding transaction and risky. Another sell signal was formed on Thursday night when the price crossed the level of 1.1234. This signal was formed during the Asian session, but it could be worked out in the morning, since at the time of the opening of the European price was not far from the point of formation. At the end of the European session, the price overcame the next level - the extreme of 1.1192. And the movement stopped only around the last support level of 1.1152, around which it was possible to take profits. In total, it was possible to earn about 60-65 points.
We recommend to familiarize yourself with:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. January 28. The Fed's path may turn out to be more "hawkish" than the Fed itself assumed. The collapse of the euro and the pound.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. January 28. US dollar - pound sterling: the crushing victory of the first. US GDP grew stronger than expected.
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on January 28. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
EUR/USD 1H
The technical picture continues to indicate a downward trend on the hourly timeframe. On Wednesday, the pair tried to settle above the trend line several times, but it failed, and in the evening, when the results of the Fed meeting and the essence of Powell's speech became known, there was no question of any growth of the pair. Thus, the euro continued to fall at this time. We allocate the following levels for trading on Friday – 1.0990, 1.1147, 1.1192, 1.1234, 1.1274, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1391) and Kijun-sen (1.1245) lines. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when searching for trading signals. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price went in the right direction of 15 points. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. There will be practically no important statistics and "foundation" on January 28. Only secondary reports will be published in America, such as changes in the level of income and spending of the population or the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan. There will be no such publications in the European Union. Therefore, today the market can trade more calmly and start an upward correction.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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