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EUR/USD broke strongly above the former top at 1.0933 after the Fed's decision to hike only 25 bps and a follow-up with a dovish press conference. However, the spike was almost as strong as the break was. After peaking at 1.1033 EUR/USD has turned lower with the same force and back below the former resistance at 1.0933 which now opens a possible alternative count that sees the dip from the peak at 1.0933 to 1.0802 as wave A and the rally to 1.1033 as wave B of an expanded flat and wave C lower to the possible target area between 1.0437 - 1.0500 as being in motion.
For us to dismiss the alternative count, we need a direct break back above minor resistance at 1.1002 which would call for a continuation higher to 1.1393.
Only time will tell, but it's a good reminder that 4 waves can be very complex and hard to read in real-time and we always need to keep the options and possible alternative scenarios open.
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