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According to the pound/dollar instrument, the wave marking now requires additions and adjustments, but it may still take a more or less digestible form. At the moment, the last downward wave has gone beyond the low of the expected downward trend segment, which I consider completed. Thus, we will no longer see the classical correction structure a-b-c. Nevertheless, wave analysis allows for the construction of various correction structures, so a more complex three-wave formation w-x-y can be constructed. Anyway, the pound and the euro continue to show a very high degree of correlation, and both instruments should build approximately the same sections of the trend. Ascending. At the same time, according to the euro currency, it can be a classic a-b-c, and according to the pound, a rarer w-x-y. But in both cases, the instruments should now build an ascending wave, which should go beyond the peak of the previous ascending one. The wave marking on the British now looks not quite unambiguous, but still has the right to life. The fact that a stronger appreciation of the US currency did not begin after the Fed meeting is encouraging and gives chances for building the necessary upward wave.
Retail sales in the UK are falling.
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by 20 basis points on June 24. Market activity on Friday was very low, although several reports were released that day. In the UK, a retail trade report was released this morning. According to it, retail sales in May decreased by 4.7% year-on-year and by 0.5% month-on-month. The market was waiting for more optimistic values. Excluding fuel sales, sales fell by 5.7% y/y and 0.7% m/m. Also worse than market expectations. Nevertheless, the pound sterling rose slightly in the morning (literally by 20p), but the market activity was so weak that no one even noticed the efforts of the Briton. In the USA, the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan was released, which also did not attract the attention of the market.
Thus, the pound continues to build a correctional structure and moves very much like a European. In both cases, I am waiting for the construction of an ascending wave, but I may have to wait a very long time. The last few weeks have shown that the market is not eager to buy the euro or the pound now. And without an increase in demand for these currencies, there will not be the growth we need. Next week, Christine Lagarde will speak several times, Jerome Powell once, an inflation report for June will be released in the European Union, a GDP report in the UK, and the ISM business activity index in the US. The news background, therefore, will be quite interesting, but will it be able to cause an increase in demand for the currencies we are interested in? The speeches of Lagarde, Powell, and Bailey can no longer be regarded as support for the euro and the pound. UK GDP is likely to decline in the first quarter, and inflation in the European Union will rise again. Thus, the general nature of the news background is unlikely to change. A European and a Briton can only count on wave marking now.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument has become clearer. I still expect the construction of an upward wave within the corrective upward structure. If the current wave marking is correct, then the instrument's increase will continue with targets located above the calculated mark of 1.2671, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci. I recommend buying each MACD signal "up".
At the higher scale, the entire downward trend section looks fully equipped but may take on a more extended form. If the current correctional structure still takes an even more non-standard form, then adjustments will have to be made.
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