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The euro is hovering in a narrow range between 1.0200 and 1.0250. The macroeconomic calendar is empty for two days. The market is flat ahead of data on US inflation. In the worst-case scenario, inflation could stay firm at 9.1%. In the best-case scenario, it is expected to slow down to 8.7%. Anyway, it is a sign of a reduction in risks for the economy as a whole. Therefore, even if inflation remains unchanged, it will boost the greenback. Still, market participants are not ready to take risks. They know that inflation may well rise further despite any forecast. That is why the market is likely to remain flat ahead of important data.
United States Inflation:
EUR/USD slowed its upward move near the swing high recorded on August 4, in line with the upper limit of the sideways channel. As a result, the volume of long positions decreased, and a pullback occurred.
The RSI crossed line 50 from bottom to top on the 4-hour chart, signaling movement within the sideways channel. On the daily chart, the technical indicator has been moving down below line 50 since June, indicating a downtrend.
There are multiple crossovers of the Alligator's MAs, which makes a mixed signal. On the daily chart, there is a crossover of the Alligator's green and red MAs, which indicates a slowing downtrend.
Outlook
The price pulled back from the upper limit around 1.0250/1.0270. In case of consolidation below 1.0200, the target will stand at 1.0150, the lower limit of the range.
Alternatively, the quote may return to 1.0250 and then head towards 1.0270/1.0280.
Major changes on the chart may take place if the price consolidates above the key level of 1.0300 if it is a bull trend and below 1.0100 if market participants push the pair to the parity level.
Notably, the signal should be confirmed in the 4-hour time frame.
In terms of complex indicator analysis, there is a mixed signal for short-term and intraday trading due to the flat market. Indicators now signal to sell the euro amid a pullback from the upper limit of the sideways channel.
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