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On the 4-hour TF, it is even better to see that bitcoin has not managed to surpass $ 24,350. And there were quite a lot of attempts. A weak ascending channel supported the further growth of quotes until recently, but the "bitcoin" dropped below it just yesterday. It means that we have another sell signal at our disposal. Recall that several sell signals were formed on the 24-hour TF. Thus, no matter what TF you look at now, the technical picture says the same thing everywhere. And what about the "foundation"?
Those who regularly read our articles should be aware that the key factors in the fall of the euro and the pound (as risky currencies) were the divergence in monetary approaches between the Fed and the ECB with BA, as well as geopolitics. The US dollar was, is, and will be the safest currency, no matter how the Fed pumps up its economy with unsecured dollars (especially since the ECB, BA, and other central banks of the world also did this very actively during the pandemic years). Thus, in "difficult times," it is in demand as a safe asset. Accordingly, the demand for risky assets is falling. And it is difficult to find an asset even riskier than bitcoin. Thus, the geopolitical factor alone is enough for bitcoin to continue flying into the abyss. Also, raising the Fed's key rate plays a very important role. With a rising key rate, demand is growing for bank deposits and treasury bonds, while stocks and cryptocurrencies are falling. If the US stock market is still trying to show growth from time to time, which is probably due to the flow of capital from Europe to the States, then the cryptocurrency market is one, and no one is in a hurry to pour their capital from relatively safe and secured assets into a "dummy."
Unfortunately, after 14 years of existence, bitcoin has not become a "pillar" of the global financial system and has been unable to displace fiat money anywhere (except in El Salvador). For many, bitcoin remains an "investment toy," a tool with which you can earn a lot of money in a relatively short time. As a currency, it is mostly used for payments on the Internet, and even then, it is often for "gray" and "black" transactions. Of course, we do not mean payments for amounts equivalent to $ 100 or $ 1,000. They are too small to be taken into account at all. Thus, for the growth of bitcoin, you need to wait for a favorable fundamental background. And it can be formed only when the Fed at least stops raising the key rate.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes of "bitcoin" apparently completed an upward correction. We believe that the decline will now continue. In this case, the first target for sales will be the level of $ 17,582, which is the last local minimum. Next, the overall goal for the two timeframes is $ 12,426.
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