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Last Friday, the euro traded within the range of target levels 0.9752-0.9850, closing the day down 12 points. The daily Marlin Oscillator turned sideways – to the neutral state, even though it is in the negative territory.
A debt crisis is brewing in Europe, which began with a rise in yields on British medium-term government bonds, in particular, on 3-year securities over the last ten days of September, it jumped from 3.05% to 4.74%. For German 3-year bonds, during this time, the yield increased from 1.54% to 1.80%. Given the European Central Bank's intention to raise rates sharply at the October meeting, anxiety will only intensify. But maybe not today or tomorrow.
The eurozone is expected to have a neutral PMI in the manufacturing sector for September - that is, it will remain at its previous value of 48.5 points, while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast to weaken from 52.8 to 52.2. As a result, we expect some more delay for the euro in the range of 0.9695-0.9850. Perhaps, having the price settle under 0.9695, that is, under the close on September 23, when the euro collapsed by 150 points, the trend will strengthen in a new downward momentum.
On the H4 chart, the price settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, which also indicates the possibility of the price staying in the side short-term trend. The Marlin Oscillator has turned down, but not enough yet, given the overall technical picture, for the effectiveness of such a signal.
The probability of continuation of the correction to the level of 0.9950, which has already reached and significantly strengthened the MACD line of the daily scale, is 35%. We will allocate 50% for sideways movement and 15% for downward reversal.
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