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The focus of today's trading day will be on the release (at 13:30 GMT) of the US Department of Labor's November data report. And we see trader activity and market volatility gradually decreasing after the dollar set another anti-record during today's Asian trading session as the dollar index (DXY) fell to a new 22-week low at 104.33.
Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair is rising again today. As of writing, it was trading near 0.6816, testing the 0.6840 key resistance level (200 EMA on the daily chart) for the second day in a row.
If further market events continue to develop negatively for USD, after the breakdown of the resistance level, AUD/USD will go to the key long-term resistance level 0.6900 (50 EMA on the weekly chart). Its breakdown will increase the probability of further growth of AUD/USD towards the key resistance levels 0.7100, 0.7170 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), which separates the long-term bearish trend of the pair from the bullish one.
So far, despite the growth of the pair, which can be described as corrective, there is still a long-term bearish trend.
In view of this, short positions remain preferable below the resistance levels 0.6840, 0.6900. The first signal for the resumption of short positions will be a breakdown of support levels 0.6760 (144 EMA on the daily chart), 0.6733 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).
A breakdown of the 0.6620 support level will confirm our main forecast, which is negative for the pair, and will also mean a revival of the downward dynamics with AUD/USD returning inside the downward channel on the weekly chart.
Alternatively, AUD/USD will break into the zone above the resistance levels 0.6840, 0.6900. But, most likely, in this zone, AUD/USD is waiting for a rebound and further movement according to our main (negative for AUD/USD) scenario.
Support levels: 0.6760, 0.6733, 0.6700, 0.6620, 0.6600, 0.6500, 0.6455, 0.6390, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Resistance levels: 0.6840, 0.6900
Trading Tips
Sell Stop 0.6785. Stop-Loss 0.6855. Take-Profit 0.6760, 0.6733, 0.6700, 0.6620, 0.6600, 0.6500, 0.6455, 0.6390, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170, 0.5975, 0.5665, 0.5510
Buy Stop 0.6855. Stop-Loss 0.6785. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.7037, 0.7100, 0.7170
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