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On the whole, a decline in the pound sterling came as a logical move in the context of a dismal UK GDP for Q3 2022. Let me remind you that the flash estimate logged a slowdown in the UK's annual economic growth to 2.4% from 4.4%. In practice, the revised Q3 GDP was downgraded to 1.9% on year. On top of that, the GDP for the second quarter was also downgraded to 4.0%. All in all, the annual GDP rate reveals a sharp slowdown in the national economic output. In quarterly terms, the British economy is heading for a recession at full steam. The UK GDP contracted by 0.3% sequentially, steeper than a decline of 0.2%.
UK Gross Domestic Product, y/y
A weekly update by the US Labor Department was slightly better than expected. The US revised GDP matched the second estimate. The number of initial unemployment claims grew 2K last week, though the consensus had suggested a 14K increase. The number of continuing jobless claims decreased by 6K, defying the forecast for a 2K growth.
US Continuing Unemployment Claims
The thing is that all price action of GBP/USD happened after the publication of the UK GDP data. The instrument's moves calmed down before the publication of the US statistics. Thus, we could hardly say that GBP's weakness is linked to the macroeconomic data. Apparently, traders still give priority to the technical picture because large market players are away from the market. Perhaps they have already left the market for the Christmas holiday. Importantly, the pound sterling has dipped below the trading range in which it had been stuck since the end of the last week. At the same time, the single European currency remains in its trading range. So, the market will make efforts to push GBP/USD at least towards 1.21. The market will have an excuse for that as the US will report on its durable goods orders which are expected to drop 0.5%. Bearing in mind the thin market and its common behaviour, GBP/USD could retreat to 1.21 before the publication of the data. Markets in the UK are open for shorter hours.
US Durable Goods Orders
GBP/USD dropped off 1.2150 and shortly after retreated to the psychological level of 1.2000. To sum up a weekly dynamic, GBP/USD lost 3.5% or almost 450 pips. At the same time, even with such a steep fall, the currency pair is still following the overall upward cycle from the lows of the downtrend line.
The H4 RSI is moving at the lower area of 30/50. It means high trading interest in short positions. The D1 RSI slipped to the middle line of 50 for the first time since early November. It indicates a full-fledged correctional stage.
Moving averages on the H4 Alligator are directed downwards. It corresponds to the correctional stage which has been going on from the peak of the upward cycle. Moving averages on the D1 Alligator are intersected with each other, thus indicating a slowdown of the upward cycle.
Outlook and trading tips
Under such market conditions, the price settlement below 1.1950 could be a signal of a further increase in short positions. In this case, the ongoing correctional decline will be extended. Eventually, it could change trading sentiment.
Otherwise, the area of 1.1950/1.2000/1.2050 will assure traders to cut on short positions. This will enable a slowdown or completion of the downward correction.
Complex indicator analysis is generating a sell signal for GBP/USD for short-term and intraday trading because the price is retreating back to 1.2000.
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