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Based on the results of the previous trading week, it is safe to say that Bitcoin has completed a period of consolidation that lasted more than a month. As a result, the cryptocurrency resumed its upward movement and reached the $21k level.
At the same time, it is important to take into account the fundamental difference between the current upward trend, which is expressed in growing trading volumes. After a long pause, large buyers again enter the cryptocurrency market, which favorably affects the capitalization of Bitcoin.
For 16 days in 2023, the main digital asset won back all the fall in November 2022. Many analysts see it as the end of a bearish trend and the final formation of a local bottom around $15.6k. Quantitative analyst PlanB expressed similar conclusions, while institutional experts expect another stage of BTC price decline.
According to network activity data provided by Santiment, large investors resumed buying Bitcoin in early January. As of January 16, whales hold more than 23.5% of the total supply of cryptocurrencies, which is equivalent to 4.57 million BTC coins.
CryptoQuant analysts also note a significant net inflow of Bitcoins to crypto exchanges of 4,200 BTC worth $80.3 million. The renewed flows of coins to the exchanges may indicate the normalization of market sentiment and a pullback to normal after the collapse of FTX.
At the same time, there is also a negative context, because BTC transfers to exchanges may indicate growing speculative sentiment. In the medium term, this may negatively affect the market and increase manipulative price movements.
However, a much more significant factor for the transfer of BTC coins to exchanges may be the desire of investors to fix local profits or break even. Near the $16k level, more than 50% of BTC coins were at a loss, and this figure decreased significantly when the price of Bitcoin reached the $21k level.
Having consolidated above the $20k key psychological level, Bitcoin ended the trading week with a consolidation near $21k. There was no local decline in trading activity over the weekend, which allowed the asset to test the $21.2k level.
Subsequently, the bears managed to defend the line and go on a local and successful counterattack. BTC ended Sunday with a slight decline, but a long lower wick indicated the activation of buyers. As a result, the bulls picked up the price near the $20.5k level and resumed their upward movement.
The cryptocurrency started Monday with local growth and absorption of the remaining bearish volumes. The price has tested the $21.2k–$21.4k area for the second time, but selling pressure remains as the price is near a two-month high.
The technical metrics of Bitcoin are still in the overbought zone but gradually acquiring a flat direction. Stochastic is moving near the level of 95, and the RSI index is 87. To avoid increased volatility and a protracted correction, BTC needs a local correction and consolidation near $20k.
Bitcoin continues its upward movement, but there is every reason to believe that the current week will be the last within the local bullish trend. The first signals of the transfer of coins to the exchanges indicate a wave of fixation to breakeven/minimum profit.
At a minimum, miners will want to lock in local profits to cover running costs. Most likely, Bitcoin will be able to reach the $22.4k–$22.8k area before bear pressure intensifies. With a price correction (necessary), the key task for buyers will be to hold the $20k level.
Bitcoin performed well in the attack and once again prompted talk of the end of the bearish trend. However, it is important to take into account the factor of the first mass activation of buyers, which provoked a local overheating of the market.
To confirm the end of the bearish trend and the start of the capitalization recovery stage, the asset needs to hold the $20k level, which is key for further growth.
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