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Despite the obvious overbought, Bitcoin continues its upward movement. The asset broke through the $23k level, where the price is consolidating for further upward movement.
At the same time, there is no significant increase in daily trading volumes, which may indicate a weakening of the bullish trend. The $23k–$23.4k resistance zone does not allow the cryptocurrency to continue a confident bullish rally, and the slowdown in the upward trend of trading volumes complicates the situation.
Another reason for Bitcoin's slowdown may be important economic reports that will appear this week. Today, the publication of Microsoft's financial statements is expected, and its results will have a direct impact on stock indices, and therefore on Bitcoin.
Also, on Thursday and Friday, the indicators of the durable goods market and the level of core inflation will be released. All these publications will be a prelude to the Fed meeting next week, and therefore we can expect a gradual increase in volatility in key markets, including cryptocurrency.
At the current stage of the price movement, it is extremely beneficial for Bitcoin to maintain a high level of correlation with stock indices. For example, Carlson experts note that the end of January is historically one of the strongest periods in the stock market.
As a result, SPX broke through the $4,000 level, and Bitcoin climbed above $23k. At the same time, CoinShares notes a significantly increased interest in financial products based on cryptocurrencies. The inflow amounted to $37 million, which is also the result of a local thaw in the global economy.
JPMorgan experts, analyzing the state of the global economy, change the pessimistic forecast, adding a little hope to it. The bank's analysts believe that 7 out of 9 classes of financial assets indicate a decrease in the probability of a recession in the United States to 50%. Recall that at the end of 2022, JPMorgan believed that the probability of a recession in the United States was 85%–100%.
A similar opinion was expressed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who said that the agency predicts U.S. GDP growth in 2023 by 1%. Thus, the financier believes the United States may avoid an economic recession.
At the same time, JPMorgan analysts note that in the near future we should expect profit-taking on stock instruments. The same applies to cryptocurrencies because the growth of the asset in January allows, at least, to fix a breakeven.
In a fundamental way, nothing has changed on the Bitcoin daily chart. The cryptocurrency is in a consolidation phase near the $22.9k–$23.1k area. The bearish positions remain strong, as evidenced by the retest of the $23k level for four days in a row without visible success.
At the same time, the bears fail to develop a downward trend, as buyers instantly absorb volumes near the $22.9k level. This indicates a strong bullish trend and an early breakout and consolidation above $23k.
In the medium term, Bitcoin remains extremely overbought. The technical RSI and Stochastic indicators have been moving above the 85 levels since the beginning of January, and the stubbornness of the bulls will eventually lead the market to a deeper correction.
Bitcoin maintains a steady bullish potential, which greatly increases the full-fledged breakdown of the $23k level in the coming days. Despite the need for a correction, the asset will continue to hold the $22.9k level and move upward.
At the current stage, BTC correction is not expected, as there has been a significant activation of buyers. Considering this local decline, we should expect it in the presence of a combination of factors, including mass profit taking, increased volatility and the activation of large sellers.
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