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Euro rose on Monday after reports indicated that the decline in retail sales in the euro area slowed from -2.8% to -2.3%. However, the figure is still worse than the forecast, which is -1.2%.
The scenario is very similar to what happened with pound last Friday, when it actively grew despite the lack of any apparent reason. This seemingly hints that the market is now guided by technical factors, especially since euro rose to highs in early March, forming a channel within 1.06-1.07. And since central banks may correct their actions this month, nobody is going to take risks, so quotes are likely to remain at this area for a while.
Retail sales (Europe):
Although there are obvious similarities between euro and pound, their movements are not synchronous. For instance, euro looks to be catching up with pound, but it actually hit the upper limit of the range, while pound was just standing still. Perhaps, pound will follow such an increase today, going up to 1.2150. Euro, on the other hand, may show a slight decline. In any case, only technical factors matter today as the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty.
EUR/USD continues to rise, indicating a possible recovery from the downturn last February. Staying above 1.0700 could lead to further gains, while a decline could bring the pair to 1.0600/1.0700.
As for GBP/USD, it is frozen around 1.2000, but is moving sideways in the range of 1.1920/1.2150. Staying above 1.2050 will open the way towards 1.2150.
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